Concentrated bet
52 indicationsFew competitors, each one large. The market pays a scarcity premium to compete here.
$232B allocated capital
This is every US-listed drug developer with a market capitalisation between $100M to $20B, placed on the disease it is actually racing in. A company counts as a competitor in an indication when at least one industry sponsored clinical trial supports a programme there, so the map reads as a competitive landscape rather than a press release index. Across 299 indications the universe holds $672B of market capitalisation, spread over 275 companies, of which 108 are pure plays running clinical programmes in a single disease.
Most diseases are not races at all. 198 of the 299 indications have exactly one listed developer in the band, and only 101 have two or more. Where a race does exist, it is usually lopsided: in 64 of the 101 contested diseases the largest company holds more than half the market capitalisation on the field, and in 21 it holds more than three quarters.
The crowding discount. The market does not pay for the size of a disease, it pays for the absence of competition. The median developer in Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (3 competitors) is worth $14.7B, about 13 times the median developer in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (30 competitors, $1.1B). That gap is the single most useful thing on this page: crowding is priced, and it is priced hard.
Each dot is one contested indication. Left to right is the number of clinical stage competitors, bottom to top is the median market capitalisation of those competitors, and the dot area is the allocated capital sitting in that disease. Colour is the therapeutic area. Select a dot to open the indication.
Showing 101 contested indications. The 198 uncontested indications are deliberately left off the chart: with exactly one competitor each they would stack on a single vertical line and tell you nothing. They are all in the table and the index below.
Few competitors, each one large. The market pays a scarcity premium to compete here.
$232B allocated capital
Crowded and richly priced: six or more competitors, and the median one is worth more than the median small or mid cap biotech.
$154B allocated capital
Crowded and cheaply priced. Six or more competitors and a median company below the universe median.
$68.0B allocated capital
A thin field of small caps. Few competitors, none of them large.
$37.0B allocated capital
299 of 299 indications
| Atopic Dermatitis | Immunology & Inflammation | 11 | $3.0B | $20.4B | 1 | KYMR | Gold rush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MASH (NASH) | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 4 | $12.2B | $19.4B | 2 | MDGL | Concentrated bet |
| Achondroplasia | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 4 | $13.8B | $18.8B | 1 | ASND | Concentrated bet |
| Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer | Oncology | 30 | $1.1B | $16.2B | 5 | JAZZ | Knife fight |
| Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 3 | $14.7B | $14.6B | 2 | NBIX | Concentrated bet |
| Obesity | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 9 | $2.4B | $13.1B | 2 | ARWR | Gold rush |
| Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 13 | $607M | $12.8B | 3 | BMRN | Knife fight |
| Asthma | Immunology & Inflammation | 6 | $5.2B | $12.1B | 1 | ARWR | Gold rush |
| Major Depressive Disorder | Neurology & Psychiatry | 11 | $1.8B | $11.9B | 7 | NBIX | Gold rush |
| Prader-Willi Syndrome | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 4 | $3.6B | $10.7B | 2 | RYTM | Concentrated bet |
| Polycythemia Vera | Oncology | 3 | $3.0B | $10.7B | 1 | PTGX | Concentrated bet |
| Hidradenitis Suppurativa | Immunology & Inflammation | 4 | $3.7B | $9.5B | 1 | SYRE | Concentrated bet |
| Schizophrenia | Neurology & Psychiatry | 8 | $1.4B | $9.2B | 4 | NBIX | Gold rush |
| Bladder Cancer | Oncology | 8 | $1.8B | $9.1B | 4 | EXEL | Gold rush |
| Generalized Myasthenia Gravis | Immunology & Inflammation | 8 | $1.8B | $8.9B | 4 | TGTX | Gold rush |
| Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis | Neurology & Psychiatry | 6 | $3.4B | $8.7B | 2 | CORT | Gold rush |
| Bipolar Disorder | Neurology & Psychiatry | 5 | $5.8B | $8.7B | 2 | NBIX | Concentrated bet |
| Rheumatoid Arthritis | Immunology & Inflammation | 9 | $1.7B | $8.6B | 0 | IMVT | Gold rush |
| Ulcerative Colitis | Immunology & Inflammation | 6 | $1.8B | $8.5B | 2 | ABVX | Gold rush |
| Turner Syndrome | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 1 | $16.8B | $8.4B | 1 | ASND | Uncontested |
| Hereditary Angioedema | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 5 | $2.6B | $8.3B | 4 | BMRN | Concentrated bet |
| Focal Epilepsy | Neurology & Psychiatry | 6 | $4.2B | $8.0B | 2 | JAZZ | Gold rush |
| Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 5 | $3.0B | $7.6B | 1 | BMRN | Concentrated bet |
| Hepatocellular Carcinoma | Oncology | 5 | $2.1B | $7.3B | 1 | EXEL | Concentrated bet |
| Systemic Lupus Erythematosus | Immunology & Inflammation | 13 | $1.2B | $7.2B | 0 | CRSP | Knife fight |
| Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 3 | $585M | $7.1B | 2 | LQDA | Orphan corner |
| Acute Myeloid Leukemia | Oncology | 15 | $1.2B | $7.0B | 6 | TNGX | Knife fight |
| Small Cell Lung Cancer | Oncology | 8 | $2.0B | $6.7B | 2 | JAZZ | Gold rush |
| Ovarian Cancer | Oncology | 9 | $1.4B | $6.7B | 3 | CORT | Gold rush |
| Colorectal Cancer | Oncology | 7 | $723M | $5.9B | 3 | EXEL | Knife fight |
| Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis | Immunology & Inflammation | 7 | $1.3B | $5.8B | 1 | TRVI | Gold rush |
| Multiple Sclerosis | Neurology & Psychiatry | 6 | $1.3B | $5.7B | 3 | AXSM | Gold rush |
| Phenylketonuria | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 4 | $4.0B | $5.6B | 2 | BMRN | Concentrated bet |
| Androgenetic Alopecia | Immunology & Inflammation | 2 | $2.8B | $5.6B | 1 | MANE | Concentrated bet |
| Head and Neck Cancer | Oncology | 7 | $1.8B | $5.5B | 0 | EXEL | Gold rush |
| Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 4 | $2.8B | $5.2B | 2 | CYTK | Concentrated bet |
| Crohn's Disease | Immunology & Inflammation | 4 | $714M | $5.1B | 0 | ABVX | Orphan corner |
| Sickle Cell Disease | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 6 | $2.5B | $4.8B | 2 | TVTX | Gold rush |
| Biliary Tract Cancer | Oncology | 4 | $7.4B | $4.6B | 1 | JAZZ | Concentrated bet |
| Streptococcal Infections | Infectious Disease & Vaccines | 1 | $9.1B | $4.6B | 0 | PCVX | Uncontested |
| Pneumococcal Disease Prophylaxis | Infectious Disease & Vaccines | 1 | $9.1B | $4.6B | 1 | PCVX | Uncontested |
| Well-differentiated Non-functional Neuroendocrine Tumor | Oncology | 1 | $9.0B | $4.5B | 0 | CRNX | Uncontested |
| Sjögren's Disease | Immunology & Inflammation | 4 | $1.7B | $4.4B | 1 | IMVT | Concentrated bet |
| Dravet Syndrome | Neurology & Psychiatry | 3 | $2.4B | $4.2B | 2 | IONS | Concentrated bet |
| PIK3CA-related Overgrowth Spectrum | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 1 | $4.2B | $4.2B | 0 | RLAY | Uncontested |
| Geographic Atrophy | Ophthalmology | 3 | $918M | $4.0B | 2 | BLTE | Orphan corner |
| Treatment Resistant Depression | Neurology & Psychiatry | 3 | $1.8B | $3.8B | 1 | ATAI | Concentrated bet |
| Spinal Muscular Atrophy Type III | Neurology & Psychiatry | 2 | $4.6B | $3.7B | 2 | SRRK | Concentrated bet |
| Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia | Oncology | 4 | $2.1B | $3.7B | 1 | TGTX | Concentrated bet |
| Gastric Cancer | Oncology | 8 | $575M | $3.6B | 2 | JAZZ | Knife fight |
| Thyroid Eye Disease | Immunology & Inflammation | 2 | $2.8B | $3.6B | 2 | ZLAB | Concentrated bet |
| IgA Nephropathy | Immunology & Inflammation | 4 | $1.8B | $3.6B | 2 | VERA | Concentrated bet |
| Stargardt Disease | Ophthalmology | 2 | $3.7B | $3.6B | 0 | BLTE | Concentrated bet |
| Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy | Neurology & Psychiatry | 2 | $7.0B | $3.6B | 1 | IMVT | Concentrated bet |
| Vasomotor Symptoms | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 1 | $3.5B | $3.5B | 0 | ABCL | Uncontested |
| Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 2 | $3.5B | $3.5B | 1 | SRRK | Concentrated bet |
| Wet Age-related Macular Degeneration | Ophthalmology | 4 | $1.5B | $3.5B | 4 | OCUL | Concentrated bet |
| Renal Cell Carcinoma | Oncology | 5 | $3.8B | $3.4B | 2 | EXEL | Concentrated bet |
| ADHD | Neurology & Psychiatry | 2 | $6.7B | $3.4B | 2 | AXSM | Concentrated bet |
| HER2 Positive Breast Cancer | Oncology | 2 | $10.2B | $3.3B | 0 | JAZZ | Concentrated bet |
| SCN2A Encephalopathy | Neurology & Psychiatry | 1 | $9.9B | $3.3B | 0 | PRAX | Uncontested |
| Tonic-Clonic Epilepsy | Neurology & Psychiatry | 1 | $9.9B | $3.3B | 1 | PRAX | Uncontested |
| Bladder Cancer with FGFR3 Mutation | Oncology | 1 | $6.6B | $3.3B | 0 | CGON | Uncontested |
| Friedreich Ataxia | Neurology & Psychiatry | 5 | $941M | $3.2B | 2 | PTCT | Orphan corner |
| Diabetes | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 9 | $401M | $3.2B | 4 | IMCR | Knife fight |
| Cystic Fibrosis | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 4 | $605M | $3.1B | 0 | KRYS | Orphan corner |
| Glioblastoma | Oncology | 6 | $432M | $3.0B | 0 | IBRX | Knife fight |
| Alzheimer's Disease | Neurology & Psychiatry | 5 | $397M | $2.9B | 0 | ARWR | Orphan corner |
| Hypertriglyceridemia | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 2 | $10.9B | $2.8B | 2 | ARWR | Concentrated bet |
| Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer | Oncology | 3 | $4.0B | $2.8B | 2 | EXEL | Concentrated bet |
| Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer | Oncology | 1 | $13.7B | $2.7B | 1 | SMMT | Uncontested |
| Excessive Daytime Somnolence | Neurology & Psychiatry | 1 | $10.9B | $2.7B | 1 | AXSM | Uncontested |
| Smoking Cessation | Neurology & Psychiatry | 1 | $10.9B | $2.7B | 1 | AXSM | Uncontested |
| Prostate Cancer | Oncology | 6 | $1.1B | $2.7B | 1 | IBRX | Knife fight |
| Chorea | Neurology & Psychiatry | 1 | $16.1B | $2.7B | 1 | NBIX | Uncontested |
| Obsessive Compulsive Disorder | Neurology & Psychiatry | 1 | $16.1B | $2.7B | 0 | NBIX | Uncontested |
| Breast Cancer | Oncology | 10 | $288M | $2.7B | 2 | JAZZ | Knife fight |
| Narcolepsy Type 1 | Neurology & Psychiatry | 1 | $7.9B | $2.6B | 1 | ALKS | Uncontested |
| Parkinson's Disease | Neurology & Psychiatry | 5 | $1.3B | $2.5B | 1 | DNLI | Concentrated bet |
| Meningioma | Oncology | 3 | $14.7B | $2.5B | 0 | JAZZ | Concentrated bet |
| Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia | Oncology | 2 | $3.0B | $2.4B | 1 | ELVN | Concentrated bet |
| Huntington's Disease | Neurology & Psychiatry | 2 | $2.8B | $2.4B | 0 | QURE | Concentrated bet |
| Pancreatic Cancer | Oncology | 9 | $371M | $2.4B | 3 | IBRX | Knife fight |
| Warm Autoimmune Hemolytic Anemia | Immunology & Inflammation | 2 | $3.8B | $2.4B | 1 | CRSP | Concentrated bet |
| Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 1 | $9.2B | $2.3B | 0 | CYTK | Uncontested |
| Heart Failure with Decompensation | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 1 | $9.2B | $2.3B | 1 | CYTK | Uncontested |
| Melanoma | Oncology | 4 | $2.6B | $2.3B | 0 | TLX | Concentrated bet |
| Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor | Oncology | 3 | $1.6B | $2.3B | 2 | COGT | Concentrated bet |
| Alopecia Areata | Immunology & Inflammation | 3 | $1.6B | $2.2B | 0 | NKTR | Concentrated bet |
| Wrinkles | Immunology & Inflammation | 1 | $11.0B | $2.2B | 0 | KRYS | Uncontested |
| Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa | Rare Genetic & Metabolic | 1 | $11.0B | $2.2B | 1 | KRYS | Uncontested |
| Primary Biliary Cholangitis | Immunology & Inflammation | 1 | $6.5B | $2.2B | 0 | MIRM | Uncontested |
| Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis | Immunology & Inflammation | 1 | $6.5B | $2.2B | 0 | MIRM | Uncontested |
| Cholestatic Liver Disease | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 1 | $6.5B | $2.2B | 1 | MIRM | Uncontested |
| Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 | Neurology & Psychiatry | 3 | $250M | $2.0B | 1 | ARWR | Orphan corner |
| Dry Eye Disease | Ophthalmology | 3 | $706M | $2.0B | 0 | BHC | Orphan corner |
| IDH-Mutant Astrocytoma, Grade 2 | Oncology | 3 | $2.5B | $2.0B | 1 | TNGX | Concentrated bet |
| Multifocal Motor Neuropathy | Neurology & Psychiatry | 1 | $5.9B | $2.0B | 0 | DNTH | Uncontested |
| ATTR Amyloidosis | Cardiovascular & Metabolic | 2 | $5.7B | $2.0B | 2 | IONS | Concentrated bet |
| Graves' Disease | Immunology & Inflammation | 2 | $5.2B | $2.0B | 1 | IMVT | Concentrated bet |
Allocated capital splits every company market capitalisation evenly across the indications it runs programmes in, so these 7 areas add up to the full $672B exactly once. Oncology carries the most capital, but the money is far less concentrated than the trial count alone suggests. A company that runs programmes in more than one area is present in each of them, so the companies column below sums to more than the 275 developers in the universe.
| Therapeutic area | Allocated capital | Share | Indications | Contested | Companies present |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oncology | $187B | 27.8% | 119 | 34 | 103 |
| Immunology & Inflammation | $139B | 20.7% | 51 | 23 | 82 |
| Neurology & Psychiatry | $120B | 17.9% | 46 | 19 | 58 |
| Rare Genetic & Metabolic | $103B | 15.3% | 32 | 10 | 48 |
| Cardiovascular & Metabolic | $89.7B | 13.4% | 29 | 9 | 44 |
| Ophthalmology | $17.0B | 2.5% | 9 | 6 | 13 |
| Infectious Disease & Vaccines | $16.5B | 2.5% | 13 | 0 | 10 |
Concentration is severe at the top of the list. The five largest indications hold 13.3% of mapped capital, the top ten hold 22.3%, the top twenty hold 35.8% and the top fifty hold 60.3%. The remaining indications, most of them uncontested rare diseases with a single sponsor, share what is left.
The complete list, grouped by therapeutic area. Each entry opens the competitive landscape for that disease: who is developing a drug for it, what phase each programme is in, and how the market values the field.
Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer is the most crowded indication on the map, with 30 US-listed clinical stage developers running programmes in it. The median company in that field is worth $1.1B.
The market pays far less per company in a crowded field than in a thin one. The median developer in Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (3 competitors) is worth $14.7B, roughly 13 times the median developer in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (30 competitors, $1.1B). Scarcity of competition, not size of the patient population, is what the valuation tracks.
198 of the 299 indications on the map are uncontested: exactly one US-listed developer in the $100M to $20B band is running a clinical programme there. Only 101 indications have two or more competitors.
Allocated capital divides each company market capitalisation evenly across the indications it runs clinical programmes in, so every dollar of the universe is counted exactly once. Total market capitalisation competing counts a multi-indication company in each of its diseases and therefore sums to more than the universe.
Two folds split the map. A field is crowded at 6 or more competitors, and rich when its median company is worth more than the universe median. Gold rush is crowded and rich, concentrated bet is thin and rich, knife fight is crowded and cheap, and orphan corner is thin and cheap.
The top 5 indications hold 13.3% of mapped capital and the top 50 hold 60.3%. Within contested races the leader usually dominates: in 64 of 101 multi-competitor diseases the largest company holds more than half the field market capitalisation, and in 21 it holds more than three quarters.
Allocated capital divides each company’s market capitalisation evenly across the indications it is running clinical programmes in, so every dollar of the universe is counted exactly once. Total market capitalisation competing counts a company in each of its indications and therefore sums to more than the universe.
Third-party market size estimates are not used anywhere on this page. Approved incumbents are excluded from competitor counts, and companies above $20B are outside the universe by construction.
Universe as of 2026-09-04. Market capitalisation band $100M to $20B. Median company in the universe $1.202B, median indications per company 2.