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ARV-471

Phase 3

Advanced Breast Cancer | Small molecule | Oncology |Pfizer, Inc.|Last Updated: Mar 18, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedACTIVE_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials1
Total Enrollment624
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (1)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT05654623A Study to Learn About a New Medicine Called Vepdegestrant (ARV-471, PF-07850327) in People Who Have Advanced Metastatic Breast CancerPHASE3 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 624Mar 3, 2023May 15, 2028Mar 18, 2026312 United States, Argentina +29
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Progression Free Survival (PFS) by Blinded Independent Central Review (BICR) Assessment Per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) Version (v) 1.1- All Randomized Participants
From date of randomization to date of first documentation of objective PD or death (any cause) or censoring date, whichever occurred first (up to 18.56 months and 19.38 months of treatment exposure for vepdegestrant and fulvestrant arms respectively)

PFS assessed by BICR was defined as the time from the date of randomization to the date of the first documentation of objective progression of disease (PD) per RECIST v1.1, or death due to any cause, whichever occurred first. PD as per RECIST v1.1 was defined as at least a 20% increase in the sum of diameters of target measurable lesions above nadir (smallest sum observed considering baseline and all assessments prior to the timepoint under evaluation), with a minimum absolute increase of 5 millimeters (mm) relative to nadir or unequivocal progression of existing non-target lesions or the presence of new lesions. PFS was censored on the date of last adequate disease assessment for those who did not have a PFS event, discontinued the study treatment due to withdrawal of consent prior to an event, started a new anticancer therapy prior to an event, had an event after a gap of 2 or more missing disease assessments, or lost to follow-up. Kaplan-Meier method was used.

PFS by BICR Assessment Per RECIST v1.1-Participants With ESR1 Mutation
From date of randomization to date of first documentation of objective PD or death (any cause) or censoring date, whichever occurred first (up to 18.56 months and 19.38 months of treatment exposure for vepdegestrant and fulvestrant arms respectively)

PFS assessed by BICR was defined as the time from the date of randomization to the date of the first documentation of objective PD per RECIST v1.1, or death due to any cause, whichever occurred first. PD as per RECIST v1.1 was defined as at least a 20% increase in the sum of diameters of target measurable lesions above nadir (smallest sum observed considering baseline and all assessments prior to the timepoint under evaluation), with a minimum absolute increase of 5 mm relative to nadir or unequivocal progression of existing non-target lesions or the presence of new lesions. PFS was censored on the date of last adequate disease assessment for those who did not have a PFS event, discontinued the study treatment due to withdrawal of consent prior to an event, started a new anticancer therapy prior to an event, had an event after a gap of 2 or more missing disease assessments, or lost to follow-up. Kaplan-Meier method was used.

Secondary Endpoints
Overall Survival (OS)-All Randomized Participants
From date of randomization to the date of death due to any cause or censoring date
OS-Participants With ESR1 Mutation
From date of randomization to the date of death due to any cause or censoring date
Percentage of Participants With Objective Response (OR) by BICR Assessment- Participants With Measurable Disease at Baseline
From randomization until PD, death or start of new anticancer therapy, whichever occurred first (up to 18.56 months and 19.38 months of treatment exposure for vepdegestrant and fulvestrant arms respectively)
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingNONE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
ARV-471EXPERIMENTAL -
FulvestrantACTIVE_COMPARATOR -
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
ARV-471DRUGorally, once daily on a 28-day continuous dosing schedule
FulvestrantDRUGintramuscularly on Days 1 and 15 of Cycle 1 and then on Day 1 of each cycle starting from C2D1 (28-day cycle)
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — N/A
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites312

Inclusion Criteria: * Adult participants with loco-regional recurrent or metastatic breast disease not amenable to surgical resection or radiation therapy * Confirmed diagnosis of ER+/HER2- breast cancer * Prior therapies for locoregional recurrent or metastatic disease must fulfill all the followi...

Countries:United StatesArgentinaAustraliaAustriaBelgiumBrazilBulgariaCanadaChinaCzechiaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIndiaIsraelItalyJapanMexicoPolandPuerto RicoSlovakiaSouth AfricaSouth KoreaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTaiwanTurkey (Türkiye)United Kingdom
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Competitive Landscape -Breast Cancer 408 trials
CompanyTickerTrialsLead PhaseDrugs
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK12PHASE3Pembrolizumab, Paclitaxel, Doxorubicin, Epirubicin, Cyclophosphamide
AstraZeneca PLCAZN47PHASE3Fulvestrant, Capivasertib, Trastuzumab Deruxtecan, Paclitaxel, Trastuzumab
Gilead Sciences, Inc.GILD13PHASE3Sacituzumab Govitecan-hziy, Eribulin, Capecitabine Product, Gemcitabine, Vinorelbine
Eli Lilly and CompanyLLY27PHASE3Abemaciclib, Standard Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy, Imlunestrant, Tamoxifen, Anastrozole
BioNTech SE Sponsored ADRBNTX7PHASE3DB-1303/BNT323, T-DM1, Capecitabine, Paclitaxel, Nab-paclitaxel
Novartis AG Sponsored ADRNVS30PHASE3Ribociclib, Alpelisib, Fulvestrant, Trastuzumab, Pertuzumab
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.OLMA5PHASE3Palazestrant, Fulvestrant, Anastrozole, Letrozole, Exemestane
Pfizer Inc.PFE34PHASE3ARV-471, Fulvestrant, PF-07220060, letrozole, abemaciclib
BeOne Medicines Ltd. Sponsored ADRONC6PHASE3BGB-43395, Letrozole, Abemaciclib, Palbociclib, Ribociclib
Jazz Pharmaceuticals Public Limited CompanyJAZZ3PHASE3Zanidatamab, Trastuzumab, Eribulin, Vinorelbine, Gemcitabine
Celcuity Inc.CELC3PHASE3Gedatolisib, Palbociclib, Fulvestrant, Alpelisib, Arm A: Gedatolisib + Palbociclib + Fulvestrant
Relay Therapeutics, Inc.RLAY2PHASE3RLY-2608, Capivasertib, Fulvestrant, Palbociclib, Ribociclib
GSK plc Sponsored ADRGSK2PHASE3Niraparib
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc.GLSI1PHASE3GLSI-100
Bristol-Myers Squibb CompanyBMY5PHASE2Iza-bren, Nab-paclitaxel, Paclitaxel, Capecitabine, Carboplatin
BriaCell Therapeutics CorpBCTX2PHASE3SV-BR-1-GM, Cyclophosphamide, Interferon infiltration of the inoculation site, Retifanlimab, Treatment of Physician's Choice
Incyte CorporationINCY4PHASE2Ruxolitinib, Capecitabine, Regorafenib, Pembrolizumab, Axatilimab
Natera, Inc.NTRA3PHASE2Discontinuation of the anti-HER2 maintenance therapy
Puma Biotechnology, Inc.PBYI3PHASE2Neratinib, Loperamide, Colesevelam, Alisertib, Endocrine therapy
Immutep Ltd Sponsored ADRIMMP1PHASE2eftilagimod alpha, Paclitaxel
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT05654623primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT05654623studyFirstPostDate: changed