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Ribociclib

Phase 3

Early Breast Cancer | Small molecule | Oncology |Novartis AG|Last Updated: Jun 8, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedACTIVE_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials2
Total Enrollment6,501
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (2)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT05827081Phase IIIb Study of Ribociclib + ET in Early Breast CancerPHASE3 RECRUITING 1,400Feb 28, 2024Sep 20, 2030Jun 8, 2026217 United States, Argentina +14
NCT03701334A Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Ribociclib With Endocrine Therapy as Adjuvant Treatment in Patients With HR+/HER2- Early Breast CancerPHASE3 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 5,101Dec 7, 2018May 29, 2030Apr 1, 2026387 United States, Argentina +18
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Invasive Breast Cancer Free Survival (iBCFS) rate at 3 years
At 3 years

iBCFS is defined as the time from the date of first dose to the date of the first event of invasive ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence, local/regional invasive recurrence, distant recurrence, death (any cause), or contralateral invasive BC. iBCFS will be assessed using STEEP criteria version 2.0 (Standardized Definitions for Efficacy End Points in Adjuvant Breast Cancer Trials), as assessed by Investigator. The iBCFS rate at 3 years will be assessed.

Invasive Disease-Free Survival (iDFS)
Up to approximately 139 months

Invasive Disease-Free Survival (iDFS) is defined as the time from the date of randomization to the date of the first event of local invasive breast recurrence, regional invasive recurrence, distant recurrence, death (any cause), contralateral invasive BC, or second primary non-breast invasive cancer (excluding basal and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin). iDFS will be assessed locally using STEEP criteria (Standardized Definitions for Efficacy End Points in Adjuvant Breast Cancer Trials).

Secondary Endpoints
Incidence and severity of adverse events (AEs) using CTCAE v4.03
Up to approximately 6 years
Invasive Disease-Free Survival (iDFS)
Up to approximately 6 years
Distant Disease-Free Survival (DDFS)
Up to approximately 6 years
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationNA
MaskingNONE
ModelSINGLE_GROUP
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
Ribociclib + endocrine therapyEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive ribociclib 400 mg orally once daily on days 1 to 21 of a 28-day cycle, in combination with daily endocrine therapy (ET) for 36 months (approximately 39 cycles). ET consists of: * For postmenopausal women: letrozole 2.5 mg orally once daily continuously, anastrozole 1 mg orally once daily continuously, or exemestane 25 mg once daily continuously. * For pre/perimenopausal women, and men: letrozole 2.5 mg orally once daily continuously, anastrozole 1 mg orally once daily continuously, or exemestane 25 mg once daily continuously, combined with goserelin subcutaneously (at 3.6 mg once every 4 weeks if the one-month depot formulation is used or at 10.8 mg once every 3 months if the three-month depot formulation is used) or leuprolide subcutaneously (at 3.75 mg once every 4 weeks if the one-month depot formulation is used or at 11.25 mg once every 3 months if the three-month depot formulation is used)
Ribociclib + Endocrine Therapy (ET)EXPERIMENTALEligible participants will receive Ribociclib 400 mg once daily on days 1 to 21 of a 28-day cycle, followed by 7 days off ribociclib (Days 22 to 28). And Endocrine Therapy (ET) consisting of: * For postmenopausal women: \- Letrozole 2.5 mg by mouth daily continuously or anastrozole 1 mg by mouth daily continuously. * For premenopausal women and men: * Letrozole 2.5 mg by mouth daily continuously or anastrozole 1 mg by mouth daily continuously, combined with: * Goserelin 3.6 mg subcutaneously once every 4 weeks.
Endocrine Therapy (ET)ACTIVE_COMPARATOREligible participants will receive Endocrine Therapy (ET) consisting of: * For postmenopausal women: \- Letrozole 2.5 mg by mouth daily continuously or anastrozole 1 mg by mouth daily continuously. * For premenopausal women and men: * Letrozole 2.5 mg by mouth daily continuously or anastrozole 1 mg by mouth daily continuously, combined with: * Goserelin 3.6 mg subcutaneously once every 4 weeks.
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
RibociclibDRUGRibociclib 400 mg orally once daily on days 1-21 of a 28 day cycle followed by 7 days rest
LetrozoleDRUGLetrozole 2.5 mg orally once daily continuously
AnsastrozoleDRUGAnastrozole 1 mg orally once daily continuously.
GoserelinDRUGGoserelin administered subcutaneously at 3.6 mg once every 4 weeks if the one-month depot formulation is used or at 10.8 mg once every 3 months if the three-month depot formulation is used
LeuprolideDRUGLeuprolide administered subcutaneously at 3.75 mg once every 4 weeks if the one-month depot formulation is used or at 11.25 mg once every 3 months if the three-month depot formulation is used
ExemestaneDRUGExemestane 25 mg once daily continuously
Endocrine Therapy (ET)OTHEREndocrine Therapy (ET) will be administered according to the local clinical guidelines and current local prescribing information
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — 100 Years
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites217

Key Inclusion criteria: * Participant is an adult, male or female ≥ 18 years of age at the time of informed consent form signature (IC). * Participant has a histologically and/or cytologically confirmed diagnosis of estrogen-receptor positive and/or progesterone receptor positive breast cancer (BC)...

Countries:United StatesArgentinaAustraliaBrazilCanadaChinaGermanyHong KongIndiaIsraelMexicoPortugalPuerto RicoSouth KoreaTaiwanTurkey (Türkiye)AustriaBelgiumFranceHungaryIrelandItalyPolandRomaniaRussiaSpainUnited Kingdom
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWJun 8, 2026NCT05827081lastUpdatePostDate: changed
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LOWJun 2, 2026NCT05827081lastUpdatePostDate: changed
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT05827081primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT03701334primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT05827081studyFirstPostDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT03701334studyFirstPostDate: changed