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Nab-Paclitaxel

Phase 3

Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer | Small molecule | Oncology |AstraZeneca PLC|Last Updated: Mar 4, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedACTIVE_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials1
Total Enrollment866
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (1)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT04494425Study of Trastuzumab Deruxtecan (T-DXd) vs Investigator's Choice Chemotherapy in HER2-low, Hormone Receptor Positive, Metastatic Breast CancerPHASE3 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 866Jul 24, 2020Jun 19, 2026Mar 4, 2026293 United States, Argentina +26
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Progression-Free Survival (PFS) Assessed by Blinded Independent Central Review (BICR) in the Hormone Receptor-Positive (HR+), Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Low Population
Response evaluations performed at screening, every 6 weeks (q6w) ± 1 week from randomization for 48 weeks, and then every 9 weeks (q9w) ± 1 week, starting at Week 48 until PD, up to PCD of 18 March 2024 (maximum of approximately 43.85 months)

PFS per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1.1 (RECIST 1.1) assessed by BICR was defined as the time from the date of randomization until the date of PD, as defined or death (by any cause in the absence of progression) regardless of whether the participant withdrew from randomized therapy or received another anticancer therapy prior to progression. PD was defined as at least a 20% increase in the sum of diameters of target lesions (TLs), taking as reference the smallest previous sum of diameters (nadir), this included the baseline sum if that was the smallest on study. In addition to the relative increase of 20%, the sum must demonstrate an absolute increase of at least 5 millimeter (mm) from nadir. Median PFS was calculated using Kaplan-Meier method and its confidence interval (CI) using Brookmeyer-Crowley method.

Secondary Endpoints
Overall Survival (OS) in the Hormone Receptor-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-low Population
From date of randomization until death due to any cause, up to PCD of 18 March 2024 (maximum of approximately 43.85 months)
Progression-Free Survival Assessed by Blinded Independent Central Review in the Intent-to-Treat, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Immunohistochemistry (IHC) >0 <1+ and Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-low Population
Response evaluations performed at screening, q6w ± 1 week from randomization for 48 weeks, and then q9w ± 1 week, starting at Week 48 until PD, up to PCD of 18 March 2024 (maximum of approximately 43.85 months)
Overall Survival (OS) in the Intent-to-Treat Population
From date of randomization until death due to any cause, up to PCD of 18 March 2024 (maximum of approximately 43.85 months)
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingNONE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
Trastuzumab deruxtecanEXPERIMENTALTrastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd; DS-8201a) arm
Standard of CareACTIVE_COMPARATORInvestigator's choice standard of care chemotherapy (capecitabine, paclitaxel, nab-paclitaxel) arm
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
Trastuzumab deruxtecanDRUGTrastuzumab deruxtecan by intravenous infusion
CapecitabineDRUGInvestigator's choice standard of care single agent chemotherapy; capecitabine tablets will be given orally.
PaclitaxelDRUGInvestigator's choice standard of care single agent chemotherapy; paclitaxel by intravenous infusion.
Nab-PaclitaxelDRUGInvestigator's choice standard of care single agent chemotherapy; nab-paclitaxel by intravenous infusion
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — 105 Years
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites293

Key Inclusion Criteria: * Patients must be ≥18 years of age * Pathologically documented breast cancer that: 1. is advanced or metastatic 2. has a history of HER2-low or negative expression by local test, defined as IHC 2+/ISH- or IHC 1+ (ISH- or untested) or HER2 IHC 0 (ISH- or untested) 3. ...

Countries:United StatesArgentinaAustraliaAustriaBelgiumBrazilCanadaChinaDenmarkFranceGermanyHungaryIndiaIsraelItalyJapanMexicoNetherlandsPolandPortugalRussiaSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth KoreaSpainSwedenTaiwanUnited Kingdom
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Competitive Landscape -Breast Cancer 408 trials
CompanyTickerTrialsLead PhaseDrugs
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK12PHASE3Pembrolizumab, Paclitaxel, Doxorubicin, Epirubicin, Cyclophosphamide
AstraZeneca PLCAZN47PHASE3Fulvestrant, Capivasertib, Trastuzumab Deruxtecan, Paclitaxel, Trastuzumab
Gilead Sciences, Inc.GILD13PHASE3Sacituzumab Govitecan-hziy, Eribulin, Capecitabine Product, Gemcitabine, Vinorelbine
Eli Lilly and CompanyLLY27PHASE3Abemaciclib, Standard Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy, Imlunestrant, Tamoxifen, Anastrozole
BioNTech SE Sponsored ADRBNTX7PHASE3DB-1303/BNT323, T-DM1, Capecitabine, Paclitaxel, Nab-paclitaxel
Novartis AG Sponsored ADRNVS30PHASE3Ribociclib, Alpelisib, Fulvestrant, Trastuzumab, Pertuzumab
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.OLMA5PHASE3Palazestrant, Fulvestrant, Anastrozole, Letrozole, Exemestane
Pfizer Inc.PFE34PHASE3ARV-471, Fulvestrant, PF-07220060, letrozole, abemaciclib
BeOne Medicines Ltd. Sponsored ADRONC6PHASE3BGB-43395, Letrozole, Abemaciclib, Palbociclib, Ribociclib
Jazz Pharmaceuticals Public Limited CompanyJAZZ3PHASE3Zanidatamab, Trastuzumab, Eribulin, Vinorelbine, Gemcitabine
Celcuity Inc.CELC3PHASE3Gedatolisib, Palbociclib, Fulvestrant, Alpelisib, Arm A: Gedatolisib + Palbociclib + Fulvestrant
Relay Therapeutics, Inc.RLAY2PHASE3RLY-2608, Capivasertib, Fulvestrant, Palbociclib, Ribociclib
GSK plc Sponsored ADRGSK2PHASE3Niraparib
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc.GLSI1PHASE3GLSI-100
Bristol-Myers Squibb CompanyBMY5PHASE2Iza-bren, Nab-paclitaxel, Paclitaxel, Capecitabine, Carboplatin
BriaCell Therapeutics CorpBCTX2PHASE3SV-BR-1-GM, Cyclophosphamide, Interferon infiltration of the inoculation site, Retifanlimab, Treatment of Physician's Choice
Incyte CorporationINCY4PHASE2Ruxolitinib, Capecitabine, Regorafenib, Pembrolizumab, Axatilimab
Natera, Inc.NTRA3PHASE2Discontinuation of the anti-HER2 maintenance therapy
Puma Biotechnology, Inc.PBYI3PHASE2Neratinib, Loperamide, Colesevelam, Alisertib, Endocrine therapy
Immutep Ltd Sponsored ADRIMMP1PHASE2eftilagimod alpha, Paclitaxel
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT04494425primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT04494425studyFirstPostDate: changed