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LY3016859

Phase 2

Osteoarthritis | Small molecule | Musculoskeletal |Eli Lilly and Company|Last Updated: Nov 14, 2023

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedDouble-BlindPLACEBO_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials1
Total Enrollment117
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (1)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT04456686Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3016859 in Participants With OsteoarthritisPHASE2 COMPLETED 117Jul 1, 2020Aug 26, 2021Nov 14, 202333 United States, Puerto Rico
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Change From Baseline in Average Pain Intensity as Measured by the Numeric Rating Scale (NRS)
Baseline, up to Week 8

The NRS was used during the preliminary data entry period and daily throughout the study to describe pain severity. Participants were asked to describe their average pain over the past 24 hours, on a scale of 0 to 10: 0 = no pain, and 10 = pain as bad as you can imagine. Posterior mean change from baseline, 95% credible interval (CrI) was derived using Bayesian mixed model repeated measures. The Bayesian analyses include posterior probabilities instead of p-values, and 95% credible intervals instead of 95% confidence intervals.

Secondary Endpoints
Change From Baseline on the Western Ontario and McMaster University (WOMAC®) Arthritis Index (WOMAC®) Pain Subscale
Baseline, up to Week 8
Change From Baseline on the WOMAC® Stiffness Subscale
Baseline, up to Week 8
Change From Baseline on the WOMAC® Physical Function Subscale
Baseline, up to Week 8
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingDOUBLE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
750 Mg-500 mg LY3016859EXPERIMENTALParticipants received LY3016859 every 2 weeks with 750 milligram (mg) as starting dose followed by 500 mg intravenous (IV) infusion for a total of 4 doses.
PlaceboPLACEBO_COMPARATORParticipants received placebo every 2 weeks by IV infusion for a total of 4 doses.
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
LY3016859DRUGLY3016859 given IV.
PlaceboDRUGPlacebo given IV.
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range40 Years — N/A
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites33

Inclusion Criteria: * Have a visual analog scale (VAS) pain value ≥40 and \<95 during screening. * Have a history of daily pain for at least 12 weeks based on participant report or medical history. * Have a value of ≤30 on the pain catastrophizing scale. * Have a body mass index \<40 kilograms per ...

Countries:United StatesPuerto Rico
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