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KAI-9531

Phase 3

Obesity | Small molecule | Metabolic |Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.|Last Updated: Jun 8, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedDouble-BlindPLACEBO_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials3
Total Enrollment3,250
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (3)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT07284979Efficacy and Safety of KAI-9531 Administered Once Weekly Compared With Semaglutide and Placebo in Participants Living With Obesity Who Do Not Have DiabetesPHASE3 RECRUITING 1,200Dec 30, 2025Apr 17, 2028Jun 8, 202633 United States, Australia
NCT07284875Efficacy and Safety of KAI-9531 in Participants Living With Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities Who Do Not Have DiabetesPHASE3 RECRUITING 1,800Dec 18, 2025Mar 27, 2028Jun 8, 202637 United States, Australia +1
NCT07458269Efficacy and Safety of KAI-9531 Administered Once Weekly in Participants Living With Obesity Who Do Not Have DiabetesPHASE2 RECRUITING 250Mar 4, 2026Jun 1, 2027Apr 20, 202633 United States
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Percent Change From Baseline in Body Weight at Week 76
Baseline, Week 76
Dose 3 and 4 versus Placebo: Percent Change From Baseline in Body Weight at Week 76
Baseline, Week 76
Percent Change From Baseline in Body Weight at Week 48
Baseline, Week 48
Secondary Endpoints
Percentage of Participants with ≥10%, ≥15%, ≥20% and ≥25% Reduction in Body Weight
Baseline, Week 76
Change From Baseline in Waist Circumference
Baseline, Week 76
Change From Baseline in Absolute Body Weight
Baseline, Week 76
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingDOUBLE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
KAI-9531: Dose 1EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive Dose 1 of KAI-9531 once weekly.
KAI-9531: Dose 2EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive Dose 2 of KAI-9531 once weekly.
SemaglutideACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive semaglutide once weekly.
PlaceboPLACEBO_COMPARATORParticipants will receive placebo matched to KAI-9531 once weekly.
KAI-9531: Dose 3EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive Dose 3 of KAI-9531 once weekly.
KAI-9531: Dose 4EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive Dose 4 of KAI-9531 once weekly.
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
KAI-9531DRUGSC Injection
SemaglutideDRUGSC Injection
PlaceboDRUGSC Injection
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — N/A
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites33

Key Inclusion Criteria: * BMI ≥35 kilograms per square meter (kg/m\^2). * History of at least 1 self-reported unsuccessful effort to lose weight with diet and exercise within the prior 6 months. Key Exclusion Criteria: * Current diagnosis or history of diabetes mellitus. * Started medications wit...

Countries:United StatesAustraliaNew Zealand
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWJun 8, 2026NCT07284875lastUpdatePostDate: changed
LOWJun 8, 2026NCT07284979lastUpdatePostDate: changed
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT07458269primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT07284979primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT07284875primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT07458269studyFirstPostDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT07284979studyFirstPostDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT07284875studyFirstPostDate: changed