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Tirzepatide

Phase 3

Type 2 Diabetes | Small molecule | Metabolic |Eli Lilly and Company|Last Updated: Mar 23, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedDouble-BlindPLACEBO_CONTROLLEDBiomarker
Total Trials9
Total Enrollment7,004
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (9)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT05963022A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Chinese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes (SURPASS-CN-MONO)PHASE3 COMPLETED 206Aug 21, 2023Oct 9, 2024Oct 21, 202528 China
NCT04657003A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Are OverweightPHASE3 COMPLETED 938Mar 29, 2021Apr 10, 2023Apr 8, 202475 United States, Argentina +6
NCT04537923A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) Versus Insulin Lispro (U100) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Inadequately Controlled on Insulin Glargine (U100) With or Without MetforminPHASE3 COMPLETED 1,428Oct 19, 2020Nov 1, 2022Nov 2, 2023135 United States, Argentina +14
NCT04093752A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes on Metformin With or Without Sulfonylurea (SURPASS-AP-Combo)PHASE3 COMPLETED 917Dec 9, 2019Nov 24, 2021Jan 6, 202367 Australia, China +2
NCT04039503A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) Versus Placebo in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Inadequately Controlled on Insulin Glargine With or Without MetforminPHASE3 COMPLETED 475Aug 30, 2019Jan 13, 2021Jan 12, 202248 United States, Czechia +6
NCT03987919A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) Versus Semaglutide Once Weekly as Add-on Therapy to Metformin in Participants With Type 2 DiabetesPHASE3 COMPLETED 1,879Jul 30, 2019Feb 15, 2021Feb 14, 2022127 United States, Argentina +7
NCT03861052A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) Compared to Dulaglutide in Participants With Type 2 DiabetesPHASE3 COMPLETED 636May 7, 2019Mar 31, 2021Apr 14, 202246 Japan
NCT06037252A Study of Investigational Tirzepatide (LY3298176) Doses in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and ObesityPHASE2 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 414Sep 21, 2023Oct 1, 2026Mar 23, 202640 United States, Argentina +2
NCT03311724A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Type 2 DiabetesPHASE2 COMPLETED 111Oct 19, 2017Apr 24, 2018May 19, 202113 United States
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)
Baseline, Week 40

HbA1c is the glycosylated fraction of hemoglobin A. HbA1c is measured primarily to identify average plasma glucose concentration over prolonged periods of time. Least squares (LS) mean was calculated using ANCOVA model with Baseline + Prior Antihyperglycemic Use + Treatment (Type III sum of squares) as variables.

Percent Change From Baseline in Body Weight
Baseline, Week 72

Least Squares Mean (LSMean) calculated using Mixed Model Repeated Measures (MMRM) model for post-baseline measures: Variable = Baseline + Analysis Country + Sex + Type of Antihyperglycemic Medication (AHM) Used at Randomization + Treatment + Time + Treatment\*Time (Type III sum of squares).

Percentage of Participants Who Achieve ≥5% Body Weight Reduction From Baseline
Week 72

Percentage of participants who achieve ≥5% body weight reduction from baseline

Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) (Pooled Doses of Tirzepatide 5 mg, 10 mg and 15 mg)
Baseline, Week 52

HbA1c is the glycosylated fraction of hemoglobin A. HbA1c is measured primarily to identify average plasma glucose concentration over prolonged periods of time. Least Squares (LS) mean was determined by mixed-model repeated measures (MMRM) model with covariates Baseline + Pooled Country + Baseline Metformin Use (Yes, No) + Treatment + Time + Treatment\*Time (Type III sum of squares).

Mean Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) (10 mg and 15 mg)
Baseline, Week 40

HbA1c is the glycosylated fraction of hemoglobin A. HbA1c is measured primarily to identify average plasma glucose concentration over prolonged periods of time. Least Squares (LS) mean was determined by mixed model repeated measures (MMRM) model with covariates Baseline + Country + Baseline Oral Antihyperglycemic Medication (OAM) Use (Metformin (Met), Met plus Sulfonylurea (SU)) + Treatment + Time + Treatment\*Time (Type III sum of squares).

Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) (10 mg and 15 mg)
Baseline, Week 40

HbA1c is the glycosylated fraction of hemoglobin A. HbA1c is measured primarily to identify average plasma glucose concentration over prolonged periods of time. Least Squares (LS) mean was determined by mixed-model repeated measures (MMRM) model with Baseline + Baseline Metformin Use (Yes, No) + Pooled Country + Treatment + Time + Treatment\*Time (Type III sum of squares).

Change From Baseline in Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)
Baseline, 3 Months

Least squares (LS) mean was calculated using mixed model repeated measures model (MMRM) with baseline + baseline BMI group + baseline metformin flag + treatment + time + treatment\*time as fixed factors.

Secondary Endpoints
Percentage of Participants With HbA1c Target Values of <7.0% (<53 Millimole/Mole [mmol/Mol])
Week 40
Change From Baseline in Fasting Serum Glucose
Baseline, Week 40
Percentage of Participants With HbA1c Target Values of ≤6.5% (≤48 mmol/Mol)
Week 40
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingDOUBLE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
5 Milligram (mg) TirzepatideEXPERIMENTALParticipants received 5 mg of tirzepatide administered as subcutaneous (SC) injection via a single-dose pen (SDP) once weekly (QW) for 40 weeks. The starting dose of tirzepatide was 2.5 mg QW, which increased by 2.5 mg every 4 weeks until the maintenance dose of 5 mg was reached.
10 mg TirzepatideEXPERIMENTALParticipants received 10 mg of tirzepatide administered as SC injection via a SDP QW for 40 weeks. The starting dose of tirzepatide was 2.5 mg QW, which increased by 2.5 mg every 4 weeks (2.5 mg to 5 mg to 7.5 mg to 10 mg) until the maintenance dose of 10 mg was reached.
15 mg TirzepatideEXPERIMENTALParticipants received 15 mg of tirzepatide administered as SC injection via a SDP QW for 40 weeks. The starting dose of tirzepatide was 2.5 mg QW, which increased by 2.5 mg every 4 weeks (2.5 mg to 5 mg to 7.5 mg to 10 mg to 12.5 mg to 15 mg) until the maintenance dose of 15 mg was reached.
PlaceboPLACEBO_COMPARATORParticipants received tirzepatide matched placebo administered as SC injection via a SDP QW for 40 weeks.
10 milligrams (mg) TirzepatideEXPERIMENTAL10 mg Tirzepatide administered subcutaneously (SC) once weekly (QW)
5 mg TirzepatideEXPERIMENTAL5 milligrams (mg) tirzepatide administered subcutaneously (SC) once a week.
Insulin LisproACTIVE_COMPARATORInsulin lispro 100 units per milliliter (U100) administered SC three times a day.
Insulin GlargineACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants received insulin glargine administered once daily (QD) SC. The starting dose of insulin glargine was 6 Insulin Units (IU)/day at bedtime, titrated to a fasting blood glucose (FBG) between 72-100 milligrams per Deciliter (mg/dL), following a treat-to-target (TTT) algorithm.
1 mg SemaglutideACTIVE_COMPARATOR1 mg semaglutide administered SC once a week.
0.75 mg DulaglutideACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants received 0.75 mg dulaglutide administered SC once weekly for 52 weeks.
Tirzepatide High Dose 1EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive tirzepatide subcutaneously (SC).
Tirzepatide High Dose 2EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive tirzepatide SC.
TirzepatideACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive tirzepatide SC.
4,8,12mg TirzepatideEXPERIMENTALParticipants received Tirzepatide by subcutaneous (SC) injection in three dose escalations starting with 4 milligrams (mg) for four weeks followed by 8mg for four weeks followed by 12mg for four weeks.
2.5,5,10,15mg TirzepatideEXPERIMENTALParticipants received Tirzepatide by SC injection in four dose escalations starting with 2.5mg for two weeks followed by 5mg for two weeks followed by 10mg for four weeks followed by 15mg for four weeks.
2.5,7.5,15mg TirzepatideEXPERIMENTALParticipants received Tirzepatide by SC injection in three dose escalations starting with 2.5mg for four weeks followed by 7.5mg for four weeks followed by 15mg for four weeks.
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
TirzepatideDRUGAdministered SC
PlaceboDRUGAdministered SC
Insulin Lispro (U100)DRUGAdministered SC
Insulin GlargineDRUGAdministered SC
SemaglutideDRUGAdministered SC
DulaglutideDRUGAdministered SC
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — N/A
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites28

Inclusion Criteria: * Have Type 2 Diabetes * Have HbA1c ≥7.0% (≥53 mmol/mol) to ≤9.5% (≤80 mmol/mol) despite diet and exercise treatment * Are of stable weight 5%) during the 90 days preceding screening and agree not to initiate a diet and/or exercise program during the study with the intent of red...

Countries:ChinaUnited StatesArgentinaBrazilIndiaJapanPuerto RicoRussiaTaiwanBelgiumCzechiaGermanyGreeceHungaryItalyMexicoRomaniaSlovakiaSpainTurkey (Türkiye)AustraliaSouth KoreaPolandCanadaIsraelUnited Kingdom
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT06037252Enrollment: 350 → 414
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT06037252studyFirstPostDate: changed