Recent Updates
Recently added Catalysts

Elacestrant

Phase 3

ER-positive Breast Cancer | Small molecule | Oncology |Natera, Inc.|Last Updated: May 15, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
Premium
Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
Premium
Trial Design
RandomizedACTIVE_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials1
Total Enrollment220
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (1)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT05512364Elacestrant for Treating ER+/HER2- Breast Cancer Patients With ctDNA Relapse (TREAT ctDNA)PHASE3 RECRUITING 220Dec 15, 2023Nov 1, 2035May 15, 2026109 Belgium, Cyprus +10
Unlock Drug Trial Details
Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Distant metastasis free survival (DMFS)
Final DFMS will be 6.25 years after the first patient randomised.

Distant metastasis free survival (DMFS) defined as the time from randomisation until first distant metastatic recurrence or death from any cause, whichever occurs first

Secondary Endpoints
Invasive disease-free survival (iDFS)
Through study completion, up to 11.7 years
Relapse-free survival (RFS)
Through study completion, up to 11.7 years
Overall survival rate
Through study completion, up to 11.7 years
Unlock Study Endpoints
Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingNONE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
Experimental armEXPERIMENTALelacestrant 400 mg/day orally once daily on a continuous dosing schedule
Control armACTIVE_COMPARATORstandard endocrine treatment - the same they were receiving at the time of ctDNA detection
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
ElacestrantDRUG400mg QD orally on a continuous dosing schedule
TamoxifenDRUG20 mg QD orally on a continuous dosing schedule
Letrozole 2.5mgDRUG2.5 mg QD orally on a continuous dosing schedule
Anastrozole 1mgDRUG1 mg QD orally on a continuous dosing schedule
Exemestane 25 MGDRUG25 mg QD orally on a continuous dosing schedule
Unlock Study Design Details
Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — N/A
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites109

Inclusion Criteria: 1. ctDNA screening phase: Main inclusion criteria: • Female (both pre- and postmenopausal) or male patients with histologically confirmed ER positive (regardless of PR), HER2 negative breast cancer, according to local pathologist: * ER-positive defined as ≥ 10% of...

Countries:BelgiumCyprusFranceGermanyGreeceIrelandItalyNetherlandsPortugalSpainSwedenSwitzerland
Unlock Eligibility Criteria
Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT05512364primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT05512364studyFirstPostDate: changed