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mRNA-1010

Phase 3

Seasonal Influenza | Monoclonal antibody | Infectious Disease |Moderna, Inc.|Last Updated: Sep 10, 2025

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedDouble-BlindACTIVE_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials5
Total Enrollment78,717
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (5)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT06602024A Study of mRNA-1010 Compared With a Licensed Influenza Vaccine in Adults ≥50 Years of AgePHASE3 COMPLETED 40,817Sep 16, 2024Aug 21, 2025Sep 10, 2025301 United States, Belgium +9
NCT05827978Study of mRNA-1010 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in AdultsPHASE3 COMPLETED 8,411Apr 17, 2023Jun 24, 2024Jul 10, 2025103 United States
NCT05566639A Study of mRNA-1010 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Adults 50 Years Old and OlderPHASE3 COMPLETED 22,502Sep 14, 2022Jan 5, 2024Jan 16, 2025233 United States, Bulgaria +9
NCT05415462A Study of mRNA-1010 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in AdultsPHASE3 COMPLETED 6,102Jun 6, 2022Sep 4, 2023Sep 24, 202453 Argentina, Australia +3
NCT04956575A Study of mRNA-1010 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Healthy AdultsPHASE1 COMPLETED 885Jul 6, 2021Sep 27, 2022Oct 27, 202321 United States
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Number of Participants with Solicited Local and Systemic Adverse Reactions (ARs)
Day 1 to Day 7
Number of Participants with Unsolicited Adverse Events (AEs)
Day 1 to Day 28
Number of Participants with Medically Attended AEs (MAAEs), AEs Leading to Discontinuation, Serious Adverse Events (SAEs), or Adverse Events of Special Interest (AESI)
Day 1 to Day 181
Time to First Episode of RT-PCR Confirmed Protocol Defined ILI
Day 14 up to End of Season (up to approximately Day 181)

ILI caused by any influenza A or B strains.

Geometric Mean Titer (GMT) of Anti-Hemagglutinin (HA) Antibody Levels as Measured by Hemagglutination Inhibition (HAI)
Day 29

Influenza A strains included H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B strains included Victoria and Yamagata strains. Antibody values reported as below lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) were replaced by 0.5\*LLOQ. Values greater than the upper limit of quantification (ULOQ) were converted to the ULOQ.

Percentage of Participants Reaching Seroconversion, as Measured by HAI
Day 29

Influenza A strains included H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B strains included Victoria and Yamagata strains. Seroconversion rate was defined as the percentage of participants with either a Baseline HAI titer \<1:10 and a postbaseline titer ≥1:40 or a Baseline HAI titer ≥1:10 and a minimum 4-fold rise in postbaseline HAI antibody titer. Antibody values reported as below LLOQ were replaced by 0.5\*LLOQ. Values greater than the ULOQ were converted to the ULOQ.

Number of Participants With Medically Attended Adverse Events (MAAEs), Adverse Events of Special Interest (AESIs), SAEs, and AEs Leading to Discontinuation
Day 1 through Day 181

An MAAE was an AE that led to an unscheduled visit to a healthcare practitioner. An AESI was an AE (serious or nonserious) of scientific and medical concern specific to the Sponsor's product or program, for which ongoing monitoring and immediate notification by the Investigator to the Sponsor was required. An SAE was defined as any AE that resulted in death, was life-threatening, required inpatient hospitalization or prolongation of existing hospitalization, resulted in disability, was a congenital anomaly/birth defect, or was an important medical event. A summary of SAEs and all nonserious AEs ("Other"), regardless of causality, is located in the "Reported Adverse Events" section.

Number of Participants With Solicited Local and Systemic Reactogenicity Adverse Reactions (ARs)
7 days post-vaccination

Solicited ARs (local and systemic) were collected in an electronic diary (eDiary). Local ARs included: injection site pain, injection site erythema (redness), injection site swelling/induration (hardness), and axillary (underarm) swelling or tenderness ipsilateral to the side of injection. Systemic ARs included: fever, headache, fatigue, myalgia, arthralgia, nausea/vomiting, and chills. All solicited ARs considered causally related to injection were graded 0-4 (per Toxicity Grading Scale for Healthy Adult and Adolescent Volunteers Enrolled in Preventive Vaccine Clinical Trials); lower score indicates lower severity, and a higher score indicates greater severity. Note, not all solicited ARs were considered adverse events (AEs). The Investigator reviewed whether the solicited AR was also to be recorded as an AE. A Summary of serious AEs (SAEs) and nonserious AEs ("Other"), regardless of causality, is located in the "Reported Adverse Events" section.

Number of Participants With Serious Adverse Events (SAEs), AEs of Special Interest (AESIs), Medically Attended AEs (MAAEs), and AEs Leading to Discontinuation
Day 1 through Day 361 (Month 12)

An SAE was defined as any AE that resulted in death, was life-threatening, required inpatient hospitalization or prolongation of existing hospitalization, resulted in disability/permanent damage, was a congenital anomaly/birth defect, or was an important medical event. AESIs included thrombocytopenia, new onset of or worsening of the protocol specified neurologic diseases, anaphylaxis, and myocarditis/pericarditis. An MAAE is an AE that lead to an unscheduled visit to an healthcare practitioner. This included visits to a study site for unscheduled assessments (for example, abnormal laboratory follow-up, and/or coronavirus disease 2019 \[COVID-19\] and visits to healthcare practitioners external to the study site (for example, urgent care, primary care physician). Number of participants with SAEs, AESIs, MAAEs, and AEs leading to discontinuation up to the end of study (Day 361) are reported in this outcome measure.

Number of Participants With First Episode of RT-PCR-Confirmed Protocol-Defined Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) Caused by Any Seasonal Influenza A or B Virus Strains Regardless of Antigenic Match to Strains Selected for the Seasonal Vaccine
14 days post-vaccination through Day 181 (Month 6)

Protocol-defined ILI: The presence of body temperature ≥37.5 degrees celsius (°C) (≥99.5 degrees fahrenheit \[°F\]), accompanied by at least one of the respiratory illness symptoms (sore throat, cough, sputum production, wheezing, or difficulty breathing) and a positive Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) for influenza.

Geometric Mean Titer (GMT) of Anti-Hemagglutinin (HA) Antibodies at Day 29, as Measured by Hemagglutination Inhibition (HAI) Assay for Vaccine-matched Influenza A and B Strains
Day 29

Seasonal influenza A strains included H1N1 and H3N2 and seasonal influenza B strains included Victoria-lineage and Yamagata-lineage.

Percentage of Participants Reaching Seroconversion at Day 29, as Measured by HAI Assay for Vaccine-matched Influenza A and B Strains
Day 29

Seasonal influenza A strains included H1N1 and H3N2 and seasonal influenza B strains included Victoria-lineage and Yamagata-lineage. Seroconversion was defined as either a Baseline HAI titer \<1:10 and a post-Baseline titer ≥1:40 or a Baseline HAI titer ≥1:10 and a minimum 4-fold rise in post-Baseline HAI Ab titer.

Number of Participants With Unsolicited AEs
Up to 28 days post-vaccination

An AE was defined as any untoward medical occurrence associated with the use of a drug in humans, whether or not considered drug related. Any abnormal laboratory test result (hematology, clinical chemistry, or prothrombin time \[PT\]/partial thromboplastin time \[PTT\]) or other safety assessment (for example, electrocardiogram, radiological scan, vital sign measurement), including one that worsened from baseline and was considered clinically significant in the medical and scientific judgment of the Investigator was recorded as an AE. Number of participants with unsolicited AEs (SAEs and non-serious AEs) up to 28 days post-vaccination are reported in this outcome measure.

Number of Participants With Solicited Local and Systemic ARs
7 days after vaccination

Solicited ARs (local and systemic) were collected in the electronic diary (eDiary). Local ARs included: pain at injection site, erythema (redness) at injection site, swelling/induration (hardness) at injection site, and localized axillary swelling or tenderness ipsilateral to the injection arm. Systemic ARs included: headache, fatigue, myalgia (muscle aches all over the body), arthralgia (aching in several joints), nausea/vomiting, rash, body temperature (potentially fever), and chills. Solicited ARs (local and systemic) considered causally related to injection were graded 0-4; lower score indicates lower severity and a higher score indicates greater severity. Note, not all solicited ARs were considered adverse events (AEs). The Investigator reviewed whether the solicited AR was also to be recorded as an AE. Summary of serious AEs (SAEs) and nonserious AEs ("Other"), regardless of causality, is in Reported "Adverse Events" section and presented by Phase/dose group.

Number of Participants With SAEs, AEs of Special Interest (AESIs), Medically Attended AEs (MAAEs)
Up to 6 months (end of study)

An SAE was defined as any AE that resulted in death, is life-threatening, required inpatient hospitalization or prolongation of existing hospitalization, resulted in disability/permanent damage, was a congenital anomaly/birth defect, or was an important medical event. AESIs included thrombocytopenia, new onset of or worsening of the protocol specified neurologic diseases, anaphylaxis, and myocarditis/pericarditis. An MAAE is an AE that leads to an unscheduled visit to an healthcare practitioner. This would include visits to a study site for unscheduled assessments (for example, abnormal laboratory follow-up, and/or COVID-19 and visits to healthcare practitioners external to the study site (for example, urgent care, primary care physician). A summary of SAEs and all nonserious AEs ("Other"), regardless of causality, is located in the Reported "Adverse Events" section and presented by each Phase and dose group separately.

Phase 1/2: Geometric Mean Titer (GMT) of Anti-Hemagglutinin (HA) Antibodies at Day 29, as Measured by Hemagglutination Inhibition (HAI) Assay for Vaccine-Matched Seasonal Influenza A and B Strains
Day 29

Seasonal influenza A included H1N1 and H3N2 and seasonal influenza B strains included Victoria-lineage and Yamagata-lineage. GMT 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated based on the t-distribution of the log-transformed values then back transformed to the original scale for presentation.

Phase 2 NH: GMT of HA Antibodies at Day 29, as Measured by HAI Assay for Vaccine-Matched Seasonal Influenza A and B Strains
Day 29

Humoral immunogenicity relative to that of the active comparator (afluria quadrivalent) was assessed against vaccine-matched Influenza A and B strains at Day 29. Seasonal influenza A included H1N1 and H3N2 and seasonal influenza B strains included Victoria-lineage and Yamagata-lineage. GMT 95% CI was calculated based on the t-distribution of the log-transformed values then back transformed to the original scale for presentation.

Phase 2 Extension: GMT of HA Antibodies at Day 29, as Measured by HAI Assay for Vaccine-Matched Seasonal Influenza A and B Strains
Day 29

Humoral immunogenicity relative to that of the active comparator (afluria quadrivalent) was assessed against vaccine-matched Influenza A and B strains at Day 29. Seasonal influenza A included H1N1 and H3N2 and seasonal influenza B strains included Victoria-lineage and Yamagata-lineage. GMT 95% CI was calculated based on the t-distribution of the log-transformed values then back transformed to the original scale for presentation.

Phase 1/2: Percentage of Participants With Seroconversion, as Measured by HAI Assay for Vaccine-Matched Seasonal Influenza A and B
Day 29

Seasonal influenza A included H1N1 and H3N2 and seasonal influenza B strains included Victoria-lineage and Yamagata-lineage. Seroconversion at a participant level was defined as (a) if lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) was 1:10, a post-baseline titer ≥1:40 if baseline was \<1:10 or a 4-fold or greater rise from baseline if baseline was ≥1:10 in anti-HA antibodies; or (b) if LLOQ was \>1:10, a post-baseline titer ≥4 x LLOQ if baseline was \<LLOQ, or 4-fold or greater increase from baseline if baseline was ≥LLOQ in anti-HA antibodies.

Phase 1/2: Geometric Mean Fold-Rise (GMFR) of Anti-HA Antibodies at Day 29, as Measured by HAI Assay for Vaccine-Matched Seasonal Influenza A and B Strains
Day 1 (Baseline), Day 29

The GMFR measures the changes in immunogenicity titers or levels from Baseline within participants. Seasonal influenza A included H1N1 and H3N2 and seasonal influenza B strains included Victoria-lineage and Yamagata-lineage. 95% CI was calculated based on the difference in the log-transformed values for GMFR, then back transformed to the original scale for presentation.

Phase 2 NH: Percentage of Participants With Seroconversion, as Measured by HAI Assay for Vaccine-Matched Seasonal Influenza A and B
Day 29

Humoral immunogenicity relative to that of the active comparator (afluria quadrivalent) was assessed against vaccine-matched Influenza A and B strains at Day 29. Seasonal influenza A included H1N1 and H3N2 and seasonal influenza B strains included Victoria-lineage and Yamagata-lineage. Seroconversion at a participant level was defined as (a) if LLOQ was 1:10, a post-baseline titer ≥1:40 if baseline was \<1:10 or a 4-fold or greater rise from baseline if baseline was ≥1:10 in anti-HA antibodies; or (b) if LLOQ was \>1:10, a post-baseline titer ≥4 x LLOQ if baseline was \<LLOQ, or 4-fold or greater increase from baseline if baseline was ≥LLOQ in anti-HA antibodies. 95% CI was calculated using the Clopper-Pearson method

Phase 2 Extension: Percentage of Participants With Seroconversion, as Measured by HAI Assay for Vaccine-Matched Seasonal Influenza A and B
Day 29

Humoral immunogenicity relative to that of the active comparator (afluria quadrivalent) was assessed against vaccine-matched Influenza A and B strains at Day 29. Seasonal influenza A included H1N1 and H3N2 and seasonal influenza B strains included Victoria-lineage and Yamagata-lineage. Seroconversion at a participant level was defined as (a) if LLOQ was 1:10, a post-baseline titer ≥1:40 if baseline was \<1:10 or a 4-fold or greater rise from baseline if baseline was ≥1:10 in anti-HA antibodies; or (b) if LLOQ was \>1:10, a post-baseline titer ≥4 x LLOQ if baseline was \<LLOQ, or 4-fold or greater increase from baseline if baseline was ≥LLOQ in anti-HA antibodies. 95% CI was calculated using the Clopper-Pearson method

Secondary Endpoints
Number of Participants with First Episode of RT-PCR Confirmed Modified US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-Defined ILI
Day 14 up to End of Season (up to approximately Day 181)
Number of Participants with First Episode of RT-PCR Confirmed Protocol-Defined ILI or Modified CDC-Defined ILI
Day 14 up to End of Season (up to approximately Day 181)
Geometric Mean Titer (GMT) of Hemagglutination Inhibition (HAI)
Day 29
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingTRIPLE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposePREVENTION
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
mRNA-1010EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive a single injection of mRNA-1010 on Day 1.
Fluarix®, Fluarix Tetra, Influsplit® Tetra, Alpharix® TetraACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive a single injection of active comparator trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) or quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) (Fluarix®, Fluarix Tetra, Influsplit® Tetra, Alpharix® Tetra) on Day 1.
Licensed Quadrivalent Inactivated Seasonal Influenza VaccineACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive a single dose of licensed quadrivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine by IM injection on Day 1.
Fluarix QuadrivalentACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive a single dose of Fluarix Quadrivalent by IM injection on Day 1.
Fluarix TetraACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive a single dose of Fluarix Tetra by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 1/2: mRNA-1010 Dose Level AEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive mRNA-1010 at dose level A by intramuscular (IM) injection on Day 1.
Phase 1/2: mRNA-1010 Dose Level BEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive mRNA-1010 at dose level B by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 1/2: mRNA-1010 Dose Level CEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive mRNA-1010 at dose level C by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 1/2: PlaceboEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive placebo matching to mRNA-1010 by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 2 NH: Active Comparator Dose Level AACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive active comparator at dose level A by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 2 NH: mRNA-1010 Dose Level DEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive mRNA-1010 at dose level D by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 2 NH: mRNA-1010 Dose Level AEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive mRNA-1010 at dose level A by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 2 NH: mRNA-1010 Dose Level BEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive mRNA-1010 at dose level B by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 2 Extension: Active Comparator Dose Level AACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive active comparator at dose level A by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 2 Extension: mRNA-1010 Dose Level DEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive mRNA-1010 at dose level D by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 2 Extension: mRNA-1010 Dose Level EEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive mRNA-1010 at dose level E by IM injection on Day 1.
Phase 2 Extension: mRNA-1010 Dose Level FEXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive mRNA-1010 at dose level F by IM injection on Day 1.
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
mRNA-1010BIOLOGICALIntramuscular (IM) injection
Fluarix®BIOLOGICALIM injection
Influsplit® TetraBIOLOGICALIM injection
Fluarix TetraBIOLOGICALIM injection
Alpharix® TetraBIOLOGICALIM injection
Licensed Quadrivalent Inactivated Seasonal Influenza VaccineBIOLOGICALSterile suspension for injection
Fluarix QuadrivalentBIOLOGICALSterile suspension for injection.
PlaceboBIOLOGICAL0.9% sodium chloride solution for injection
Active ComparatorBIOLOGICAL0.5 milliliter (mL) intramuscular (IM) injection
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range50 Years — N/A
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersYes
Study Sites301

Inclusion Criteria: * Capable of giving signed informed consent, which includes compliance with the requirements and restrictions listed in the informed consent form (ICF) and in the protocol. * Participants who are assigned female at birth or can become pregnant are eligible to participate if: ...

Countries:United StatesBelgiumBulgariaCanadaEstoniaFinlandGeorgiaGermanySouth KoreaTaiwanUnited KingdomDenmarkNetherlandsPolandSpainArgentinaAustraliaColombiaPanamaPhilippines
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