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LY3938577

Phase 2

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 | Small molecule | Metabolic |Eli Lilly and Company|Last Updated: May 22, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedACTIVE_CONTROLLEDBiomarker
Total Trials1
Total Enrollment100
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (1)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT07215312A Study of LY3938577 in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Previously Treated With Basal InsulinPHASE2 RECRUITING 100Oct 13, 2025Dec 1, 2026May 22, 202626 United States, Argentina
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Change from Baseline in Glucose Time in Range Between 70 and 180 mg/dL Inclusive (Non-Inferiority Analysis)
Baseline through Week 20
Secondary Endpoints
Change from Baseline in Glucose Time in Range Between 70 and 180 mg/dL Inclusive (Superiority Analysis)
Baseline through Week 20
Change from Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)
Baseline, Week 20
Pharmacokinetics (PK): Average Concentration of LY3938577
Baseline through Week 20
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingNONE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
LY3938577EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive LY3938577 subcutaneously (SC)
DegludecACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive degludec SC
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
LY3938577DRUGAdministered SC
DegludecDRUGAdministered SC
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — 70 Years
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites26

Inclusion Criteria: * Have type 2 diabetes * Are receiving ≥20 units of basal insulin per day and ≤55 units/day and ≤1.5 units/kg/day at screening * Have hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) 7.5% to 10.5% inclusive * Have a body mass index (BMI) of 20 or higher and less than 35 kilograms per square meter (kg/m2)...

Countries:United StatesArgentina
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT07215312primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT07215312studyFirstPostDate: changed