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AZD9833

Phase 3

ER-Positive HER2-Negative Breast Cancer | Small molecule | Oncology |AstraZeneca PLC|Last Updated: Apr 21, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedDouble-BlindACTIVE_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials2
Total Enrollment1,685
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (2)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT04964934Phase III Study to Assess AZD9833+ CDK4/6 Inhibitor in HR+/HER2-MBC With Detectable ESR1m Before Progression (SERENA-6)PHASE3 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 315Jun 30, 2021Sep 1, 2028Apr 21, 2026265 United States, Australia +21
NCT04711252A Comparative Study of AZD9833 Plus Palbociclib Versus Anastrozole Plus Palbociclib in Patients With ER-Positive HER2 Negative Breast Cancer Who Have Not Received Any Systemic Treatment for Advanced DiseasePHASE3 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 1,370Jan 28, 2021Feb 1, 2029Oct 14, 2025263 United States, Austria +25
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Progression-free survival (PFS) assessed by the Investigator as defined by response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST version 1.1)
From randomization until the earlier of the progression event or death (approximately 2 years)

PFS is defined as the time from randomization to objective disease progression (as assessed by RECIST 1.1) or death.

Progression-free survival (PFS) assessed by the Investigator as defined by response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST) version 1.1
From randomization until progression per RECIST 1.1 as assessed by the investigator at local site or death due to any cause (up to 5 years)

PFS is defined as the time from randomization to objective disease progression (as assessed by RECIST) or death.

Secondary Endpoints
Progression-free survival 2 (PFS2)
From randomization to the earliest of the progression event (following the initial progression), subsequent to first subsequent therapy or death (approximately 3.5 years)
Overall survival (OS)
From randomization until the date of death due to any cause (approximately 5 years)
Chemotherapy free survival
From randomization until the earlier of the start date of chemotherapy or death due to any cause (approximately 5 years)
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingTRIPLE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
AZD9833 + palbociclib, abemaciclib or ribociclibEXPERIMENTALThe patients will receive AZD9833 (75 mg, PO, once daily) + palbociclib (PO, once daily, 125, 100 or 75 mg for 21 consecutive days followed by 7 days off treatment), abemaciclib (PO, twice daily, 150,100 or 50 mg) or ribociclib (To Be Determined, PO, once daily for 21 consecutive days followed by 7 days off treatment) + anastrozole placebo (PO, once daily) or letrozole placebo (PO, once daily)
Anastrozole or letrozole + palbociclib, abemaciclib or ribociclibACTIVE_COMPARATORThe patients will recieve anastrozole (1 mg, PO, once daily) or letrozole (2.5 mg, PO, once daily) + palbociclib (PO, once daily, 125, 100 or 75 mg for 21 consecutive days followed by 7 days off treatment), abemaciclib (PO, twice daily, 150, 100 or 50 mg) or ribociclib (To Be Determined, PO, once daily for 21 consecutive days followed by 7 days off treatment) + AZD9833 placebo (PO, once daily)
AZD9833 + palbociclibEXPERIMENTALThe patients will receive AZD9833 (75 mg, PO, once daily) + palbociclib (PO, once daily, 125 mg for 21 consecutive days followed by 7 days off treatment) + anastrozole placebo (1 mg, PO, once daily)
Anastrozole + palbociclibACTIVE_COMPARATORThe patients will recieve Anastrozole (1 mg, PO, once daily) + palbociclib (PO, once daily, 125 mg for 21 consecutive days followed by 7 days off treatment) + AZD9833 placebo (PO, once daily)
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
AZD9833DRUGDosage formulation: AZD9833 tablets will be administered orally
AZD9833 PlaceboDRUGDosage formulation: AZD9833 placebo tablets will be administrated orally.
AnastrozoleDRUGDosage formulation: anastrozole tablets will be administered orally.
Anastrozole placeboDRUGDosage formulation: anastrozole placebo tablets will be administrated orally.
LetrozoleDRUGDosage formulation: letrozole tablets will be administered orally.
Letrozole placeboDRUGDosage formulation: letrozole placebo tablets will be administered orally.
PalbociclibDRUGDosage formulation: palbociclib tablets/capsules will be administered orally
AbemaciclibDRUGDosage formulation: abemaciclib tablets will be administered orally
Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonistDRUGMen (when medically applicable) and pre- or peri-menopausal women are required to receive a monthly LHRH agonist.
RibociclibDRUGDosage formulation: ribociclib tablets will be administered orally
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — 130 Years
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites265

INCLUSION CRITERIA: INFORMATION FOR TRIAL PARTICIPANTS - Participants can join the trial if they: * Have advanced breast cancer that is not able to be treated with surgery or radiation; * Have an ESR1 mutation in their cancer; * Have breast cancer that is HR-positive and HER2-negative; * Are curre...

Countries:United StatesAustraliaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCanadaFranceGermanyHungaryIsraelItalyJapanNorwayPolandPortugalRussiaSlovakiaSouth KoreaSpainSwitzerlandTaiwanTurkey (Türkiye)United KingdomChileChinaCzechiaIndiaMalaysiaMexico
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT04711252primaryCompletionDate: changed
MEDIUMMay 26, 2026NCT04964934primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT04711252studyFirstPostDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT04964934studyFirstPostDate: changed