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The Oncology Institute Reaffirms 2025 Guidance and Provides Preliminary 2026 Outlook

Key Takeaway: The Oncology Institute (NASDAQ: TOI) has reaffirmed its 2025 guidance while providing a preliminary outlook for 2026, expecting total revenues between $630 million to $650 million. This reflects a 28% growth driven by expanded delegated contracts and strong performance in the Dispensary segment. Notably, 2026 is projected to be TOI's first year of Adjusted EBITDA profitability since going public, though the company acknowledges potential uncertainties that may affect its financial projections. Looking beyond 2026, TOI aims for continued growth in revenue and expanding margins through enhanced operational efficiency.

Market Sentiment Analysis

POSITIVE FACTORS

  • TOI anticipates significant revenue growth of 28% from 2025 to 2026.
  • Expected Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 indicates potential for profitability.
  • Continued expansion of contracts and revenue sources outlines a strong growth pathway.

CONCERNS & RISKS

  • Profitability from new contracts is expected to build progressively, indicating a gradual revenue realization.
  • Uncertainties regarding various financial factors may impact future GAAP results.

Full Press Release Details

The Oncology Institute Reaffirms
2025 Guidance and Provides Preliminary 2026 Outlook
CERRITOS, Calif., January 12, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (NASDAQ: TOI) ("TOI" or the "Company"), one of the largest value-based oncology
groups in the United States, today reaffirmed 2025 guidance and provided its preliminary 2026 outlook.
For 2026, TOI anticipates that total revenue will be in the range
of $630 million to $650 million, reflecting 28% growth from the midpoint of 2025 and 2026 guidance ranges, and including approximately
$150 million of Capitation revenue in 2026. This expected top-line increase reflects continued expansion of delegated contracts in Florida,
the annualized impact of strong volumes in the Dispensary segment during the second half of 2025, and broader organic growth and new contract
wins across the platform. While these drivers are expected to contribute meaningfully to revenue in 2026, the Company anticipates profitability
from newly onboarded delegated contracts to build progressively over the course of the year, with more fully realized economics in 2027.
Based on these factors, and inclusive of targeted investments
to support TOI's ongoing growth, we expect Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be in the range of $0 million to $9 million. At the midpoint
of this range, 2026 would represent TOI's first full year of Adjusted EBITDA profitability as a public company.
TOI uses Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP metric, as an additional
tool to assess its operational and financial performance. See "Financial Information: Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below. In
reliance on the unreasonable efforts exception provided under Regulation S-K, TOI is not reasonably able to provide a quantitative reconciliation
for forward-looking information of Adjusted EBITDA to net (loss) income, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, without
unreasonable efforts due to uncertainties regarding taxes, capital expenditures, operating activities, share-based compensation, goodwill
impairment charges, change in fair value of liabilities, unrealized (gains) losses on investments, practice acquisition-related costs,
consulting and legal fees, transaction costs and other non-cash items. The variability of these items could have an unpredictable, and
potentially significant, impact on TOI's future GAAP financial results.
Looking beyond 2026, we believe the Company is well positioned
for continued expansion.
We seek to grow total revenue at an annual rate of approximately
20% through 2028 and believe Capitation and Dispensary revenue could increase to approximately 30% and 50% of total revenue, respectively.
This projection reflects the ongoing migration of the business model towards comprehensive oncology care in an increasingly value-based
As TOI continues to scale, we believe margins have the potential
to expand through 2028 to the mid-single-digit range as a percentage of revenue, driven by the expansion of the asset-light delegated
capitated model, and continued SG&A leverage.
About The Oncology Institute
Founded in 2007, The Oncology Institute (NASDAQ: TOI) is advancing
oncology by delivering highly specialized, value-based cancer care in the community setting. TOI offers cutting-edge, evidence-based cancer
care to a population of approximately 1.9 million patients, including clinical trials, transfusions, and other care delivery models traditionally
associated with the most advanced care delivery organizations. With over 180 employed and affiliate clinicians and over 100 clinics and
affiliate locations of care across five states and growing, TOI is changing oncology for the better.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release includes certain statements that are not historical
facts but are forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the United States Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally are accompanied by words such as "preliminary," "believe,"
"may," "will," "estimate," "continue," "anticipate," "intend,"
"expect," "should," "would," "plan," "project," "predict," "potential,"
"guidance," "approximately," "seem," "seek," "future," "outlook,"
and similar expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends or that are not statements of historical matters. These forward-looking
statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding outlook, projections, anticipated financial results, estimates and forecasts
of revenue and other financial and performance metrics and projections of market opportunity and expectations. These statements are based
on various assumptions and on the current expectations of TOI and are not predictions of actual performance. These forward-looking statements
are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to serve as, and must not be relied on by anyone as, a guarantee, an
assurance, a prediction or a definitive statement of fact or probability. Actual events and circumstances are difficult or impossible
to predict and will differ from assumptions. Many actual events and circumstances are beyond the control of TOI. These forward-looking
statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, with such risks and uncertainties increasing with the passage of time for
longer-term outlook, including the accuracy of the assumptions underlying the 2026 full fiscal year outlook and the longer-term outlook
with respect to Adjusted EBITDA and margins discussed herein, the outcome of judicial and administrative proceedings to which TOI may
become a party or investigations to which TOI may become or is subject that could interrupt or limit TOI's operations, result in
adverse judgments, settlements or fines and create negative publicity; changes in TOI's patient or payors' preferences, prospects
and the competitive conditions prevailing in the healthcare sector; failure to continue to meet stock exchange listing standards; the
impact of a cybersecurity incident affecting a software provider on TOI's business; those factors discussed in the documents of
TOI filed, or to be filed, with the SEC, including the Item 1A. "Risk Factors" section of TOI's Annual Report on Form 10-K for
the year ended December 31, 2024 filed with the SEC on March 26, 2025 and any subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q or Current Reports
on Form 8-K. If the risks materialize or assumptions prove incorrect, actual results could differ materially from the results implied
by these forward-looking statements. There may be additional risks that TOI currently is evaluating or does not presently know or that
TOI currently believes are immaterial that could also cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements.
In addition, forward-looking statements reflect TOI's plans or forecasts of future events and views as of the date of this press
release. TOI anticipates that subsequent events and developments will cause TOI's assessments to change. TOI does not undertake
any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as representing
TOI's assessments as of any date subsequent to the date of this press release. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be placed
upon the forward-looking statements.
Financial Information: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Some of the financial information and data contained in this press
release, such as Adjusted EBITDA, have not been prepared in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP").
TOI's non-GAAP financial measures may be different from non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies. The presentation of
non-GAAP financial measures is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for, or superior to, financial measures determined
in accordance with GAAP. Because of the limitations of non-GAAP financial measures, you should consider the non-GAAP financial measures
presented in this press release in conjunction with TOI's financial statements and the related notes thereto.
TOI believes that the use of Adjusted EBITDA provides an additional
tool to assess our operations and results of our performance, to plan and forecast future periods, and factors and trends in, and in comparing
our financial measures with, other similar companies, many of which present similar non-GAAP financial measures to investors. The principal
limitation of Adjusted EBITDA is that it excludes significant expenses and income that are required by GAAP to be recorded in TOI's financial
TOI defines Adjusted EBITDA as net (loss) income plus depreciation,
amortization, interest, taxes, non-cash items, share-based compensation, goodwill impairment charges, change in fair value of liabilities,
unrealized gains or losses on investments and other adjustments to add-back the following: consulting and legal fees related to acquisitions,
one-time consulting and legal fees related to certain advisory projects, software implementations and debt or equity financings, severance
expense and temporary labor and recruiting charges to build out our corporate infrastructure.
The Oncology Institute, Inc.

Frequently Asked Questions

What revenue does The Oncology Institute expect for 2026?

TOI anticipates total revenue of $630 million to $650 million for 2026.

What is the expected Adjusted EBITDA for TOI in 2026?

TOI expects Adjusted EBITDA to range from $0 million to $9 million in 2026.

How much capitation revenue is projected for 2026?

TOI projects approximately $150 million in capitation revenue for 2026.

What annual revenue growth is TOI targeting through 2028?

TOI seeks to achieve approximately 20% annual revenue growth through 2028.

When does TOI anticipate its first full year of Adjusted EBITDA profitability?

TOI expects 2026 to be its first full year of Adjusted EBITDA profitability.

Last updated: Jan 12, 2026