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EXACT SCIENCES CORPORATION
SUPPLEMENTAL REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE
DATED JANUARY 11, 2018
This exhibit shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
The information contained in this Supplemental Regulation FD Disclosure (this Supplemental Disclosure ) is not complete and is being furnished solely for Regulation FD compliance purposes. For additional information, readers should refer to Exact Science Corporation s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2017, and its other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC ).
Unless otherwise indicated or required by the context, in this Supplemental Disclosure, the Company, we, us and our and similar terms refer to Exact Sciences Corporation and its subsidiaries. References to our common stock refer to the common stock of Exact Sciences Corporation.
This Supplemental Disclosure contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are intended to be covered by the safe harbor created by those sections. Forward-looking statements, which are based on certain assumptions and describe our future plans, strategies and expectations, can generally be identified by the use of forward-looking terms such as believe, expect, may, will, should, could, seek, intend, plan, goal, estimate, anticipate or other comparable terms. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this Supplemental Disclosure regarding our strategies, prospects, financial condition, operations, costs, plans and objectives are forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include, among others, statements we make regarding expected future operating results, anticipated results of our sales and marketing efforts, expectations concerning payer reimbursement and the anticipated results of our product development efforts. Forward-looking statements are neither historical facts nor assurances of future performance. Instead, they are based only on our current beliefs, expectations and assumptions regarding the future of our business, future plans and strategies, projections, anticipated events and trends, the economy and other future conditions. Because forward-looking statements relate to the future, they are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict and many of which are outside of our control. Our actual results and financial condition may differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements. Therefore, you should not rely on any of these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause our actual results and financial condition to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements include, among others, the following: our ability to successfully and profitably market our products and services; the acceptance of our products and services by patients and healthcare providers; our ability to meet demand for our products and services; the willingness of health insurance companies and other payers to cover Cologuard and reimburse us for our performance of the Cologuard test; the amount and nature of competition from other cancer screening products and services; the effects of the adoption, modification or repeal of any healthcare reform law, rule, order, interpretation or policy; the effects of changes in healthcare pricing, coverage and reimbursement, including without limitation as a result of the Protecting Access to Medicare Act of 2014; recommendations, guidelines and quality metrics issued by various organizations such as the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, the American Cancer Society, and the National Committee for Quality Assurance regarding cancer screening or our products and services; our ability to successfully develop new products and services; our success establishing and maintaining collaborative, licensing and supplier arrangements; our ability to maintain regulatory approvals and comply with applicable regulations; and the other risks and uncertainties described in the Risk Factors and in Management s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations sections of this Supplemental Disclosure, our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and our subsequently filed Quarterly Report(s) on Form 10-Q. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
We expect to report revenue between $86.9 million and $87.9 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2017, an increase of 148 percent from the same quarter of 2016. We completed approximately 176,000 Cologuard tests during the fourth quarter of 2017, 115-percent growth from the same period of 2016. Higher than anticipated year-end collections had a positive impact on revenues and average revenue recognized per test.
For the full-year 2017, we anticipate reporting revenue between $265.5 million and $266.5 million, a year-over-year increase of 168 percent. Completed Cologuard test volume during 2017 was approximately 571,000 tests, a 134-percent increase from 2016.
Nearly 11,000 health care providers ordered Cologuard for the first time during the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2017. The number of providers who have ordered Cologuard since its launch increased to nearly 102,000 during 2017.
We have not yet completed preparation of our financial statements for the fourth quarter or full year of 2017. The revenue ranges presented for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2017 are preliminary and unaudited and are thus inherently uncertain and subject to change. We are in the process of completing our customary year-end close and review procedures as of and for the year ended December 31, 2017, and there can be no assurance that our final results for this period will not differ from these estimates. During the course of the preparation of our consolidated financial statements and related notes as of and for the year ended December 31, 2017, we or our independent registered public accountants may identify items that could cause our final reported results to be materially different from the preliminary financial estimates presented herein.
Our top priorities for 2018 are to (1) continue to strengthen our core Cologuard business including by increasing the size of our nationwide sales force by approximately 200 representatives, which would bring our total number of sales personnel to approximately 550, (2) prepare for future demand including by continuing to invest in people, processes, technology and systems to build capacity, and (3) expand our product pipeline by developing additional cancer diagnostic tests, which may include liver and lung cancer tests, and that we expect will result in a material increase to our research and development expenditures.
We are a molecular diagnostics company currently focused on the early detection and prevention of some of the deadliest forms of cancer. We have developed an accurate, non-invasive, patient-friendly screening test called Cologuard for the early detection of colorectal cancer and pre-cancer, and we are currently working on the development of additional tests for other types of cancer, with the goal of becoming a leader in cancer diagnostics.
Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States and the leading cause of cancer deaths in the U.S. among non-smokers. Each year in the U.S. there are approximately:
135,000 new cases of colorectal cancer
50,000 deaths from colorectal cancer
Colorectal cancer treatment represents a significant, growing healthcare cost. As of 2010, $14 billion was spent annually in the U.S. on colorectal cancer treatment, and the projected annual treatment costs are expected to be $20 billion in 2020. The incidence of colorectal cancer in Medicare patients is expected to rise from 106,000 cases in 2010 to more than 180,000 cases in 2030.
It is widely accepted that colorectal cancer is among the most preventable, yet least prevented cancers. Colorectal cancer can take up to 10-15 years to progress from a pre-cancerous lesion to metastatic cancer and death. Patients who are diagnosed early in the progression of the disease with pre-cancerous lesions or polyps or early-stage cancer are more likely to have a complete recovery and to be treated less expensively. Accordingly, the American Cancer Society ( ACS ) recommends that all people age 50 and older undergo regular colorectal cancer screening. Of the more than 80 million people in the U.S. for whom routine colorectal cancer screening is recommended, 38 percent have not been screened according to current guidelines. Poor compliance with screening guidelines has meant that nearly two-thirds of
colorectal cancer diagnoses are made in the disease s late stages. The five-year survival rates for stages 3 and 4 are 67 percent and 12 percent, respectively. We believe the large underserved population of unscreened and inadequately screened patients represents a significant opportunity for a patient-friendly screening test.
Our Cologuard test is a non-invasive stool-based DNA ( sDNA ) screening test that utilizes a multi-target approach to detect DNA and hemoglobin biomarkers associated with colorectal cancer and pre-cancer. Eleven biomarkers are targeted that have been shown to be strongly associated with colorectal cancer and pre-cancer. Methylation, mutation, and hemoglobin results are combined in the laboratory analysis through a proprietary algorithm to provide a single positive or negative reportable result.
On August 11, 2014 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) approved Cologuard for use as the first and only sDNA non-invasive colorectal cancer screening test. Our submission to the FDA for Cologuard included the results of our pivotal DeeP-C clinical trial that had over 10,000 patients enrolled at 90 sites in the U.S. and Canada. The results of our DeeP-C clinical trial for Cologuard were published in the New England Journal of Medicine in April 2014. The peer-reviewed study, Multi-target Stool DNA Testing for Colorectal-Cancer Screening, highlighted the performance of Cologuard in the trial population:
Cancer Sensitivity: 92%
Stage I and II Cancer Sensitivity: 94%
High-Grade Dysplasia Sensitivity: 69%
The competitive advantages of sDNA screening may provide a significant market opportunity. If the test were used by 40-percent of the eligible screening population at a three-year screening interval, we estimate the potential U.S. market for sDNA screening would be more than $5.5 billion, annually.
Our commercialization strategy includes three main elements focusing on physicians, patients, and payers.
Our sales team actively engages with physicians and their staffs to emphasize the need for colorectal cancer screening, educate them on the value of Cologuard, and enroll them in our physician ordering system to enable them to prescribe the test. We focus on specific physicians based on Cologuard order history and on physician groups and larger regional and national health systems.
Securing inclusion in guidelines and quality measures is a key part of our physician engagement strategy since many physicians rely on such guidelines and quality measures when making screening recommendations. In June 2016, the US Preventive Services Task Force ( USPSTF ) issued an updated recommendation statement for colorectal cancer screening and gave an A grade to colorectal cancer screening starting at age 50 and continuing until age 75. The statement specifies seven screening methods, including FIT-DNA (which is Cologuard).
Many professional colorectal cancer screening guidelines in the U.S., including those of the ACS and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network ( NCCN ), recommend regular screening using any of a variety of methods. Since 2008, joint colorectal cancer screening guidelines endorsed by the ACS have included sDNA screening technology as a screening option for the detection of colorectal cancer in average risk, asymptomatic individuals age 50 and older. In October 2014, the ACS updated its colorectal cancer screening guidelines to specifically include Cologuard as a recommended screening test. In June 2016, the NCCN updated its Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines to add sDNA screening, at a once-every-three-years interval, to its list of recommended screening tests.
In October 2016, the National Committee for Quality Assurance ( NCQA ) included Cologuard testing on a three-year interval in the 2017 Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set ( HEDIS ) measures. More than 90 percent of America s health plans measure quality based on HEDIS. In April 2017, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ( CMS ) included Cologuard in its updated 2018 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings program.
A critical part of the value proposition of Cologuard is our compliance program, which involves active engagement with patients and physicians. This customer-service-oriented activity is focused on helping patients to complete Cologuard tests that have been ordered for them by their physicians and supporting physicians in their efforts to have their patients screened.
After the launch of Cologuard, we initiated a significant public relations effort to engage patients in the United States. We have conducted targeted direct-to-patient advertising campaigns through social media, print and other channels. In 2016, we began a national television advertising campaign. To date, we have focused our efforts on cable television most commonly viewed by our target patient demographic. We continue our targeted direct-to-patient advertising initiatives. During the second and third quarters of 2017 we launched new content for our television advertising campaign, highlighting the ease of use of Cologuard, which includes 30-second television spots intended to make our television advertising more cost effective. During 2018 we plan to maintain our current television advertising efforts and increase our efforts with social and digital media and engage in some national partnerships that should increase awareness for Cologuard.
The cornerstone of our payer-engagement strategy was securing coverage from CMS. Medicare covers approximately 47% of patients in the screening population for Cologuard. On October 9, 2014, CMS issued a National Coverage Determination ( NCD ) for Cologuard following a parallel review process with FDA. Cologuard was the first screening test approved by FDA and covered by CMS through that process. As outlined in the NCD, Medicare Part B covers Cologuard once every three years for beneficiaries who meet all of the following criteria:
asymptomatic (no signs or symptoms of colorectal disease including, but not limited to, lower gastrointestinal pain, blood in stool, positive guaiac fecal occult blood test or fecal immunochemical test), and
at average risk for developing colorectal cancer (e.g., no personal history of adenomatous polyps, colorectal cancer, or inflammatory bowel disease, including Crohn s Disease and ulcerative colitis; no family history of colorectal cancers or adenomatous polyps, familial adenomatous polyposis or hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer).
In the 2017 Clinical Laboratory Fee Schedule, CMS established reimbursement for Cologuard at $512.43. Payments from CMS are currently subject to sequestration. Under the Protecting Access to Medicare Act of 2014 ( PAMA ), effective January 1, 2018, the CMS reimbursement rate for Cologuard was set at $508.87, which was the volume-weighted median of private payer rates for Cologuard for the period from January 1, 2016 to June 30, 2016. We expect the CMS reimbursement rate established for 2018 to remain in place for three years, after which it would be reset based on the volume-weighted median of private payer rates for Cologuard during the data collection period between January 1, 2019 and June 30, 2019.
In addition to Medicare reimbursement, we seek to secure favorable coverage and in-network reimbursement agreements from commercial payers. Some commercial payers have issued positive coverage decisions for Cologuard and others have agreed to cover Cologuard as an in-network service. In-network agreements with payers have varying terms and conditions, including reimbursement rate, term and termination. From time to time in the ordinary course of our business, we may enter into new agreements, certain existing agreements may expire without renewal and certain other existing agreements may be terminated by us or the third-party payer. We believe that commercial payers reimbursement of Cologuard will depend on a number of factors, including payers determination that it is: sensitive and specific for colorectal cancer; not experimental or investigational; approved or recommended by major organizations guidelines; reliable, safe and effective; medically necessary; appropriate for the specific patient; and cost-effective. Also, some payers may apply various medical management requirements, including a requirement that they give prior authorization for a Cologuard test before they are willing to pay for it. Other payers may perform post-payment reviews or audits, which could lead to payment recoupments. Medical management, such as prior authorizations and post-payment review or audits, may require that we, patients, or physicians provide the payer with extensive medical records and other information.
Coverage of Cologuard may also depend, in whole or in part, on whether payers determine, or courts and/or regulatory authorities determine, coverage is required under applicable federal or state laws mandating coverage of certain colorectal cancer screening services. For example, Section 2713 of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act ( ACA ) mandates that certain health insurers cover evidence-based items or services that have in effect a rating of A or B in the current recommendations of USPSTF without imposing any patient cost-sharing ( ACA Mandate ). Similarly, federal regulations require that Medicare Advantage plans cover A or B rated preventive services without patient cost-sharing. Following the June 2016 update to the USPSTF colorectal cancer screening recommendation statement, CMS issued an updated Evidence of Coverage notice for Medicare Advantage plans that affirms such plans
must include coverage of Cologuard every three years without patient cost-sharing. While we believe the ACA Mandate will require certain health insurers to cover Cologuard without patient cost-sharing (following an initial phase-in period between one and two years from the date of the updated USPSTF recommendation statement depending on the date a given plan year commences), it is possible that certain health insurers will disagree. It is also possible that the ACA Mandate will be repealed or significantly modified in the future.
Similarly, we believe the laws of approximately 30 states currently mandate coverage of Cologuard by certain health insurance plans. While some insurers have agreed with our interpretation regarding certain state mandates, other insurers have disagreed. In some cases, we have filed lawsuits in an effort to enforce state laws we believe require coverage of Cologuard, and we may file additional suits in the future. We may or may not be successful in any such lawsuit.
We are pursuing a variety of strategies to increase commercial payer coverage for Cologuard, including providing cost effectiveness data to payers to make the case for Cologuard reimbursement. We are focusing our efforts on large national and regional insurers and health plans that have affiliated health systems.
We believe quality metrics may influence payers coverage decisions, as well as physicians cancer screening procedures. Some government and private payers are adopting pay-for-performance programs that differentiate payments for healthcare services based on the achievement of documented quality metrics, cost efficiencies or patient outcomes. Payers may look to quality measures such as the HEDIS and CMS Star Ratings measures to assess quality of care. We believe inclusion in the HEDIS measures and Star Ratings measures may have a positive impact on payers willingness to reimburse Cologuard, as well as on physicians willingness to prescribe the test.
As part of our commercialization strategy, we established a state-of-the-art, highly automated lab facility that is certified pursuant to federal Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments ( CLIA ) requirements to process Cologuard tests and provide patient results. Our commercial lab operation is housed in a 50,000 square foot facility in Madison, Wisconsin. At our lab, we currently have the capacity to process approximately one million tests per year. We are expanding our current lab facility to increase our capacity to more than two and a half million tests per year by mid-2018.
During the fourth quarter of 2017 we began construction of a new clinical laboratory facility in Madison, WI that is expected to increase our annual capacity by approximately two million tests per year. The construction is expected to be completed by mid-2019 and at that time our total capacity at both facilities should be more than four and a half million tests per year.
We also are developing a pipeline of potential future products and services. We are continuing to collaborate with MAYO Foundation for Medical Education and Research ( MAYO ), our development partner for Cologuard, on developing new tests, with the goal of becoming a leader in the early detection of cancer. We believe our proprietary technology platform provides a strong foundation for the development of additional cancer diagnostic tests. Through our collaboration with MAYO, we have identified proprietary biomarkers for several major cancers, including liver cancer and lung cancer. We have successfully performed validation studies on tissue samples for seven major cancers and on blood samples for four major cancers.
The ACS estimates that lung cancer will be diagnosed in 223,000 Americans and cause 156,000 deaths in the United States in 2017. Currently, more than half of lung cancer cases are diagnosed at an advanced stage, after symptoms appear, when the five-year survival rate is in the low single digits. We are currently developing a blood-based biomarker test to aid in the early detection of lung cancer in individuals with lung nodules discovered through a computerized tomography ( CT ) or other scan. Such a test may help reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies and other follow-up procedures, and thereby reduce costs and improve health outcomes. We recently completed a multi-round study of nearly 400 patients, which demonstrated high accuracy for detecting lung cancer at all stages.
We also continue to explore opportunities for improving Cologuard, including improvements that could lower our cost of sales.
Risks Related to Our Business
We may never become profitable.
We have incurred losses since we were formed and only began generating revenue from Cologuard, our only product, in 2014. From our date of inception on February 10, 1995 through September 30, 2017, we have accumulated a total deficit of approximately $838.9 million. We expect to continue investing significantly toward development and commercialization of our colorectal cancer screening technology and other products and services. If our revenue does not grow significantly, we will not be profitable. We cannot be certain that the revenue from the sale of any products or services based on our technologies will be sufficient to make us profitable.
We may need additional capital to execute our business plan.
Although we believe that we have sufficient capital to fund our operations for at least the next twelve months, we may require additional capital to fully fund our current strategic plan, which includes successfully commercializing Cologuard and developing a pipeline of future products and services. Additional financing may not be available in amounts or on terms satisfactory to us or at all. Our success in raising additional capital may be significantly affected by general market conditions, the market price of our common stock, our financial condition, uncertainty about the future commercial success of Cologuard, the development and commercial success of future products or services, regulatory developments, the status and scope of our intellectual property, any ongoing litigation, our compliance with applicable laws and regulations and other factors. If we raise additional funds through the sale of equity, convertible debt or other equity-linked securities, our stockholders ownership will be diluted. We may issue securities that have rights, preferences and privileges senior to our common stock. If we raise additional funds through collaborations, licensing arrangements or other structured financing transactions, we may relinquish rights to certain of our technologies or products or services, grant security interests in our assets or grant licenses to third parties on terms that are unfavorable to us.
Our success depends heavily on our Cologuard colorectal cancer screening test.
For the foreseeable future, our ability to generate revenues will depend almost entirely on the commercial success of our Cologuard test. The commercial success of our Cologuard test and our ability to generate revenues will depend on a variety of factors, including the following:
acceptance in the medical community;
inclusion of Cologuard in healthcare guidelines and recommendations, such as those developed by ACS and USPSTF;
inclusion of Cologuard in quality measures including the HEDIS measures and the CMS Medicare Advantage Star Ratings;
recommendations and studies regarding Cologuard specifically or colorectal cancer screening generally that may be published by government agencies, professional organizations, academic or medical journals or other key opinion leaders;
patient acceptance of and demand for the Cologuard test;
patient compliance with orders for the Cologuard test by healthcare providers, and patient adherence over time to recommendations regarding periodic re-screening;
successful sales, marketing, and educational programs, including successful direct-to-patient marketing such as television advertising and social media;
the number of patients screened for colorectal cancer, as well as the number of patients who use Cologuard for that purpose;
sufficient coverage and reimbursement by third-party payers, which may depend in whole or in part on multiple factors, including federal or state laws that mandate coverage for colorectal cancer screening, the extent to which those laws mandate coverage of Cologuard and the enforcement of those laws;
the amount and nature of competition from other colorectal cancer or pre-cancer screening products and procedures;
maintaining FDA marketing approval of Cologuard;
the ease of use of our ordering process for physicians;
maintaining and defending patent protection for the intellectual property relevant to Cologuard; and
our ability to establish and maintain adequate commercial manufacturing, distribution, sales and CLIA laboratory testing capabilities.
If we are unable to develop and maintain substantial sales of our Cologuard test or if we are significantly delayed or limited in doing so, our business prospects, financial condition and results of operation would be adversely affected.
Our quarterly operating results could be subject to significant fluctuation, which could increase the volatility of our stock price and cause losses to our stockholders.
Our revenues and results of operations may fluctuate significantly, depending on a variety of factors, including the following:
our success in marketing and selling, and changes in demand for, our Cologuard test, and the level of reimbursement and collection obtained for Cologuard;
seasonal variations affecting physician recommendations for colorectal cancer screenings and patient compliance with physician recommendations, including without limitation holidays and weather events;
our success in collecting payments from third-party payers, patients and collaborative partners, variation in the timing of these payments and recognition of these payments as revenues;
the pricing of our Cologuard test, including potential changes in CMS or other reimbursement rates;
fluctuations in the amount and timing of our selling and marketing costs and our ability to manage costs and expenses and effectively implement our business; and
our research and development activities, including the timing of costly clinical trials.
Other companies or institutions may develop and market novel or improved methods for detecting colorectal cancer or pre-cancer, which may make our technologies less competitive or obsolete.
The market for colorectal cancer and pre-cancer screening is large, consisting of more than 80 million Americans age 50 and above for whom routine colorectal cancer screening is recommended. As a result, this market has attracted competitors, some of which possess significantly greater financial and other resources and development capabilities than we do. Some companies and institutions are developing serum-based tests and screening tests based on the detection of proteins, nucleic acids or the presence of fragments of mutated genes in the blood that are produced by colorectal cancer or pre-cancer. We are aware of at least six companies Epigenomics AG, Applied Proteomics, Inc., Gene News, EDP Biotech Corporation, GRAIL, Inc., and Volition Diagnostics that have developed, or are developing, blood-based tests for the detection of colorectal cancer. Epigenomics AG received FDA approval for its blood-based screening test for colorectal cancer, Epi proColon, in April 2016, and began offering the test commercially in May 2016. We believe other companies are also working on so-called liquid biopsy tests using next-generation sequencing or other technology, and these tests could represent significant competition for Cologuard and other tests we may develop. Our Cologuard test also faces competition from procedure-based detection technologies such as flexible sigmoidoscopy, colonoscopy and virtual colonoscopy (a radiological imaging approach that visualizes the inside of the bowel by use of spiral computerized axial tomography known as a CT scan) as well as traditional screening tests such as FOBT and FIT and newer screening technologies such as the PillCam COLON cleared by FDA in February 2014. Our competitors may also be working on additional methods of detecting colorectal cancer and pre-cancer that have not yet been announced.
Beyond our Cologuard test, as we seek to develop other tools to detect cancer and pre-cancer, we expect to compete with a broad range of organizations in the U.S. and other countries that are engaged in the development, production and commercialization of cancer diagnostic tools. These competitors include:
biotechnology, diagnostic and other life science companies;
academic and scientific institutions;
governmental agencies; and
public and private research organizations.
We may be unable to compete effectively against our competitors either because their products and services are superior or because they may have more expertise, experience, financial resources or stronger business relationships. Our competitors may have broader product lines and greater name recognition than we do. We have limited experience developing tests for the detection of non-colorectal cancers and we cannot guarantee that our research and development activities will be successful in developing any marketable testing products or services. Further, even if we do develop new marketable products or services, our current and future competitors may develop products and services that are
more commercially attractive than ours and they may bring those products and services to market, sooner than we are able to.
We face uncertainty related to healthcare reform, pricing, coverage and reimbursement, which could reduce our revenue.
Healthcare reform laws, including the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (the ACA ) and the Protecting Access to Medicare Act of 2014 ( PAMA ), are significantly affecting the U.S. healthcare and medical services industry. Existing legislation, and possible future legal and regulatory changes, including potential repeal of the ACA, elimination of penalties regarding the individual mandate for coverage, or approval of health plans that allow lower levels of coverage for preventive services, could substantially change the structure and finances of the health insurance system and the methodology for reimbursing medical services, drugs and devices, including our current and future products and services. Any change in reimbursement policy could result in a change in patient cost-sharing, which could adversely affect patient willingness and ability to use our Cologuard test and any other product or service we may develop. Healthcare reforms, which may intend to reduce healthcare costs, may have the effect of discouraging third-party payers from covering certain kinds of medical products and services, particularly newly developed technologies, such as our Cologuard test or other products or tests we may develop in the future.
The ACA requires that non-grandfathered health plans cover, without patient cost-sharing, preventive services that have in effect a grade of A or B in the current recommendations of USPSTF (the ACA Mandate ). The requirement to cover, without cost-sharing, a newly recommended preventive service applies to each non-grandfathered health plan starting with the first plan year that begins at least one year after the date of the recommendation. In June 2016, USPSTF issued an updated colorectal screening recommendation, assigning an A grade to screening for colorectal cancer starting at age 50 years and continuing until age 75 years. We believe the A grade should be interpreted to apply to the seven types of colorectal cancer tests specifically identified by USPSTF in its recommendation including Cologuard, which was included for the first time in that recommendation for adults ages 50 to 75 and that Cologuard should therefore be included within the ACA Mandate for colorectal cancer screening tests. However, health plans may assert that they are not required to cover Cologuard under the ACA Mandate. Enforcement of the ACA Mandate may depend, in whole or in part, on state, federal or other third party enforcement actions that we would not control. Further, a court or regulatory agency may agree with arguments that may be made by insurers and determine that the ACA Mandate does not require that they cover Cologuard or may otherwise interpret the ACA Mandate in a manner unfavorable to us. Also, Congress may modify or repeal all or part of the ACA, and any such modification or repeal may repeal or limit the ACA Mandate for preventive services. If the ACA Mandate for preventive services is repealed or modified, if the ACA Mandate is determined not to require coverage of Cologuard, if the ACA Mandate is otherwise interpreted in a manner unfavorable to us, or if we are unable to secure effective enforcement of the ACA Mandate, even if it is held to require coverage of Cologuard, our business prospects, financial condition and results of operation may be adversely affected.
Several states have laws mandating coverage for preventive services, such as colorectal cancer screening services, applicable to certain health insurers. Not all of these laws apply to Cologuard, however. Further, if the ACA is repealed or replaced, or even if it is not, states may decide to modify their laws, which may include repeal of those coverage mandates that we believe currently apply to Cologuard.
Under PAMA, effective January 1, 2018, the CMS reimbursement rate for Cologuard was set at $508.87, which was the volume-weighted median of private payer rates for Cologuard from January 1, 2016 through June 30, 2016. The CMS reimbursement rate will subsequently be reset every three years, based on the volume-weighted median of private payer rates experienced in the applicable six-month data collection period. If the CMS reimbursement rate for Cologuard is reduced pursuant to PAMA or otherwise, our revenues would likely be adversely affected. PAMA presents significant uncertainty for future CMS reimbursement rates for Cologuard. Because Medicare currently covers 47% of patients in the screening population for Cologuard, any reduction in the CMS reimbursement rates for Cologuard would negatively affect our revenues and our business prospects.
If third-party payers, including managed care organizations, do not approve and maintain reimbursement for our Cologuard test at adequate reimbursement rates, we may be unable to successfully commercialize our Cologuard test which, we expect, would limit or slow our revenue generation and likely have a material adverse effect on our business.
Successful commercialization of our Cologuard test depends, in large part, on the availability of adequate reimbursement from government insurance plans, managed care organizations and private insurance plans. Although we received a positive coverage decision and what we believe is an adequate reimbursement rate from CMS for our Cologuard test, it is also critical that other third-party payers approve and maintain reimbursement for our Cologuard test at adequate reimbursement rates. Third-party payers are increasingly attempting to contain healthcare costs by limiting both coverage and the level of reimbursement for new healthcare products. As a result, there is significant uncertainty surrounding whether the use of tests that incorporate new technology, such as our Cologuard test, will be eligible for coverage by third-party payers or, if eligible for coverage, what the reimbursement rates will be. Reimbursement of sDNA colorectal cancer screening by a third-party payer may depend on a number of factors, including a payer s determination that tests using our technologies are: sensitive and specific for colorectal cancer and pre-cancer; not experimental or investigational; approved or recommended by the major guidelines organizations; subject to applicable federal or state coverage mandates; reliable, safe and effective; medically necessary; appropriate for the specific patient; and cost-effective.
If we are unable to obtain positive decisions from third-party payers, including managed care organizations, approving reimbursement for our Cologuard test at adequate levels, its commercial success will be compromised and our revenues would be significantly limited. We may also experience material delays in obtaining such reimbursement decisions and payment for our Cologuard test that are beyond our control. Further, there can be no assurance that CMS and commercial payers who initially decide to cover Cologuard will continue to do so. We are pursuing a variety of strategies to increase commercial payer coverage and reimbursement of Cologuard. In certain situations, where we believe payers are obligated to cover Cologuard under federal and state laws that mandate coverage for certain colorectal cancer screening tests, we have sued to enforce coverage obligations. We may pursue similar litigation in the future. Such litigation may be costly, may divert management attention from other responsibilities, may cause payers, including those not directly involved in the litigation, to resist contracting with us, and may ultimately prove unsuccessful.
As noted above, federal and state coverage mandates may be deemed not to apply to Cologuard, may be interpreted in a manner unfavorable to us, may be difficult to enforce and are subject to repeal or modification. For example, the ACA may be repealed or materially modified, in whole or in part, or replaced with an alternative legal framework governing healthcare matters. Such repeal modification or replacement may eliminate or modify the coverage mandate for preventive services, and any such elimination or modification may have an adverse effect on our business prospects.
Moreover, coverage determinations and reimbursement rates are subject to change, and we cannot guarantee that even if we initially achieve adequate coverage and reimbursement rates, they will be applicable to our Cologuard test in the future. As noted above, under PAMA, our Medicare reimbursement rate will be subject to adjustment based on our volume-weighted median commercial reimbursement rate. A reduction in our Medicare reimbursement rate could significantly and adversely affect our business products, financial condition and results of operation.
Even where a third-party payer agrees to cover Cologuard, other factors may have a significant impact on the actual reimbursement we receive for a Cologuard test from that payer. For example, if we do not have a contract with a given payer, we may be deemed an out-of-network provider by that payer, which could result in a greater portion of the cost of the Cologuard test being borne by the patient. We may be unsuccessful in our efforts to enter into, or maintain, a network contract with a given payer, and we expect that our network status with a given payer may change from time to time for a variety of reasons, many of which may be outside our control. To the extent Cologuard is out of network for a given payer, physicians may be less likely to prescribe Cologuard for their patients and their patients may be less likely to comply with any such orders. Also, some payers may require that they give prior authorization for a Cologuard test before they are willing to pay for it or review claims post-service to ensure the service was medically appropriate for specific patients. Prior authorization and other medical management requirements may require that we, patients or physicians provide the payer with extensive medical records and other information. Prior authorization and other medical management requirements impose a significant additional cost on us, may be difficult to comply with given our position as a laboratory, may make physicians less likely to prescribe Cologuard for their patients, and may make patients less likely to comply with physician orders for Cologuard, all or any of which may have an adverse effect on our revenues.
If our clinical studies do not satisfy providers, payers, patients and others as to the reliability, effectiveness and superiority of our Cologuard test or any future test we may develop and seek to commercialize, we may experience reluctance or refusal on the part of physicians to order, and third-party payers to pay for, such test.
Although we have received FDA approval for our Cologuard test, if the results of our research and clinical studies and our sales and marketing activities relating to communication of these results, do not convince guidelines organizations, physicians and other healthcare providers, third-party payers and patients that our Cologuard test is reliable, effective and superior to alternative screening methods, we may experience reluctance or refusal on the part of physicians to order, and third-party payers to pay for, our Cologuard test, which could adversely affect our business prospects. Likewise, if the results of our research and clinical studies and our sales and marketing activities relating to communication of these results, do not convince guidelines organizations, physicians and other healthcare providers, third-party payers and patients that other tests we may develop and seek to commercialize in the future are reliable, effective and superior to alternative tests, we may experience reluctance or refusal on the part of physicians to order, and third-party payers to pay for, those tests, which could adversely affect our business prospects.
We have finite selling and marketing resources and only limited sales, marketing, customer support, manufacturing, distribution and commercial laboratory experience, which may restrict our success in commercializing Cologuard and other products we may develop and we may be unsuccessful in entering into or maintaining third-party arrangements to support our internal efforts.