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EVH Positive Sentiment Score: 75/100

1.95B 2023 Revenue Outlook at Midpoint 39%1 Revenue CAGR Q4 2019 - Q1 2023 $190M1 2023 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook at Midpoint ~110% Revenue Renewal Rate (2022) $50B Cross-Sell Revenue Opportunity out of $150B Specialty TAM

Key Takeaway: Evolent Health has outlined an optimistic outlook for 2023, projecting revenue at $1.95 billion with a compound annual growth rate of 39% from Q4 2019 through Q1 2023. The company expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 110%, showcasing its capability in maintaining strong profitability. Additionally, a high revenue renewal rate reflects sustained client loyalty while also identifying a substantial cross-sell opportunity within the burgeoning specialty market. Overall, Evolent Health is positioning itself for significant growth amid a competitive landscape.

Market Sentiment Analysis

POSITIVE FACTORS

  • Projected revenue for 2023 at $1.95 billion signifies strong growth expectations.
  • Company anticipates a revenue CAGR of 39% from Q4 2019 to Q1 2023.
  • A high revenue renewal rate of approximately 110% indicates customer retention and satisfaction.
  • Evolent Health identifies a $50 billion cross-sell revenue opportunity within a $150 billion specialty total addressable market.

Full Press Release Details

$1.95B 2023 Revenue Outlook at Midpoint 39%1 Revenue CAGR Q4 2019 - Q1 2023 $190M1 2023 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook at Midpoint ~110% Revenue Renewal Rate (2022) $50B Cross-Sell Revenue Opportunity out of $150B Specialty TAM ~5,000 FTE's Including ~300 MDs and ~1,100 Other Clinicians
Performance Suite Technology and Service Suite/Other Business Model Mature1 Flow- Through Margins Estimated % Company Adj. EBITDA2 Future Growth Recurring Capitation; Targeted Results "Risk-Based" Recurring Technology, Service, and Case Revenue "Subscription" and Services-based Business Model ~12-18% ~50% 25% 75%
49 279 542 598 945 1,378 Q1 23 Annualized220222019 20212020 +54% Specialty Care Revenue1, $ Millions EVH Specialty Care Journey 9% 40% 59% 66% 70% +80% % of Total Revenue 20182
Q4 2020 Q2 2021 Q4 2021 Q2 2022 Q4 2022 Preferred Pathway Non-Preferred Pathway 6.6 7.7 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 Q1 2020 Q4 2022 Requested AUC Score Approved AUC Score 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Hip Replacement Total Knee Replacement
Significant runway in large and growing market with high unmet need Differentiated product portfolio with demonstrated proof points of client value Focused plan to execute against comprehensive growth opportunity
P2P Attempted Not Successful P2P Attempted Successful Outreach Recommend Adverse Determination Approved Withdrawn Cancel Discontinued Forwarded Void
topotecan lurbinectedin Median overall survival, months 8 9 Median progression-free survival, months 4 3.5 Objective remission rate % 30 30 Quarterly cost $620 $42,800
Back pain patients often bounce across specialties with no consistent journey2 MSK
$14,500 $15,500 Device Cost ($1,000) $28,500
ASC 10 ASC 9 ASC 8 ASC 7 ASC 6 ASC 5 ASC 4 ASC 3 ASC 2 ASC 1 Prospect Partner
Unique ability to address both avoidable and necessary procedure spend Promoting transparency to optimize device selection decision-making Multiple points of entry to manage MSK
Provider Alignment Next Gen Decision Support Differentiated Member Journey Oncology Cardiology MSK Radiology Genetic Testing Configurable Technology and Administrative Platform Actionable Analytics and Integration End-of-Life Deep Multi- Specialty Expertise Complex Care1 2 3 4
Headquarters: Pune, India Existing Capabilities Back-end Administrative Operations (Claims, Enrollment, Provider Data, Workforce Management, Testing/Quality, Implementation) IT Operations (Data/Production Operations, Technical Support, Corporate Infrastructure) Product & Engineering (RPA, Prod Dev & Mgt, Quality Automation) Headquarters: Manila, Philippines Existing Capabilities Customer Service Clinical Operations (Intake, Clinical Reviews, Appeals) We have scale: Our global team represent ~25% of our total workforce; all Evolent-badged employees Lowers our cost to deliver: Significant labor arbitrage Drives increased service level: Enables 24x7 operations and unlocks access to highly skilled talent Large opportunity to expand global footprint to the specialty business; expansion efforts are underway in both India and the Philippines
One Evolent with the goal of delivering operational and financial synergies Significant opportunity to leverage automation and global scale Deep bench of operational and technology expertise
Challenges 80% 87% 83%
Diversified and resilient revenue streams Proven growth algorithm Attractive gross margin profiles enable sustained earnings growth Capital-light model with clear capital allocation priorities 1 2 3 4
2022 margin for populations launched before 2019 Average margin by performance year for populations launched since 20191 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Mature First Year Second Year Third Year 0.7 million product lives 2.5 million product lives 1.4 million product lives 0.5 million product lives 3
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Adj. EBITDA1 Cash Interest Other Operating Cash Flows including Working Capital Federal Taxes Operating Cashflow Final Reported operating cashflow Operating cash deployed in acquisitions and severance1 $75 56% of Adj EBITDA 4
2022 Adjusted EBITDA Acquired Adjusted EBITDA (fully synergized) Performance Suite Maturation by EOY 2024 Line of Sight Before Net New Growth Target Adjusted EBITDA from Net New Growth by EOY 2024 Exit 2024 Target
($ in millions) Q1 2023 Q4 2022 Q3 2022 Q2 2022 Q1 2022 Q4 2021 Q3 2021 Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Net income (loss) attributable to common shareholders of Evolent Health, Inc. $(26.3) $(11.3) $2.1 $(4.5) $(5.4) $(5.6) $(13.0) $(9.1) $(9.8) $(14.6) $(37.3) $(203.5) $(78.7) Less: Interest income 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.9 Interest expense (12.9) (6.4) (4.8) (2.1) (2.2) (6.4) (6.4) (6.3) (6.3) (8.3) (7.4) (6.3) (6.3) Benefit from (provision for) income taxes 68.2 (1.1) 45.5 0.2 (1.2) 0.5 (0.2) (0.1) (0.6) 0.4 (0.5) 3.9 (0.3) Depreciation and amortization expenses (29.3) (19.8) (17.2) (15.1) (15.1) (15.1) (14.9) (14.9) (15.2) (14.9) (14.7) (15.8) (16.1) Goodwill Impairment - - - - - - - - - - - (215.1) - Impairment of equity method investments - - - - - - - - - - - - (47.1) Gain on transfer of membership - - - - - 23.0 - - 23.0 - - - - Loss on repayment/extinguishment of debt, net - - (10.2) - - (2.2) - - (19.2) - (4.8) - - Gain (loss) from equity method investees 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 4.9 7.8 (1.0) (13.7) 25.1 (0.4) Gain (loss) on disposal of assets and consolidation - - - - - - - - - 5.7 - - (6.5) Change in fair value of contingent consideration (8.6) 17.7 12.7 (0.8) (6.1) (14.1) 0.2 - 0.6 (4.4) (2.6) (0.8) 3.8 Net loss attributable to non-controlling interest - - - - - - - - - (0.8) 0.8 - - Change in tax receivable agreement liability (66.2) (3.1) (42.9) - - - - - - - - - - Other income (expense), net (0.2) (0.1) (0.3) 0.3 0.2 (0.1) - - - (0.3) (0.1) 0.4 (0.1) Repositioning costs - - - - - (1.3) - (0.7) (5.4) (1.2) - - - Stock-based compensation expense (10.7) (14.6) (7.0) (7.0) (5.3) (5.0) (4.4) (3.7) (3.7) (4.2) (3.1) (3.7) (3.5) Severance costs (1.0) (12.2) (1.0) - - (0.1) - - (0.1) (1.1) (1.8) - (6.1) Amortization of contract cost assets - - - - - - (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (2.6) (0.8) (0.4) Dividend and accretion on Series A Preferred Stock (6.3) - - - - - - - - - - - - Strategy and shareholder advisory expenses - - - - - - - (1.5) (5.0) - - - - Acquisition-related costs (11.3) (5.2) (2.6) (3.4) (0.5) (0.9) (1.2) (0.1) (2.0) (0.6) (0.8) (0.3) (0.3) Gain (loss) from discontinued operations - - - (0.4) - (8.7) - - 1.4 - - - - Adjusted EBITDA $50.5 $32.3 $28.1 $21.7 $24.3 $24.3 $13.8 $13.3 $14.9 $16.1 $12.7 $9.1 $3.7 TTM Adjusted EBITDA $132.6 $106.4 $98.4 $84.1 $75.7 $66.3 $58.1 $57.0 $52.8 $41.6
1.Eliminations represent revenue that the legacy Evolent Health Services segment earned from transactions with the legacy Clinical Solutions segment and was eliminated upon consolidation. ($ in millions) Q1 2023 Q4 2022 Q3 2022 Q2 2022 Q1 2022 Q4 2021 Q3 2021 Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Total revenue $427.7 $382.4 $352.6 $319.9 $297.1 $248.4 $222.5 $222.1 $215.1 $246.5 $239.6 $217.3 $221.4 $205.0 $180.0 $149.7 $154.3 Less: Divested assets - - - 1.8 1.7 2.5 3.2 3.6 6.8 70.1 78.6 63.6 59.1 68 58.4 36.2 32.9 Subtotal 427.7 382.4 352.6 318.1 295.4 245.9 219.3 218.5 208.3 176.5 161 153.7 162.3 137 121.7 113.5 121.4 Eliminations(1) - - - - - - (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.2) (0.1) - - Total revenue excluding divested assets $427.7 $382.4 $352.6 $318.1 $295.4 $245.9 $218.9 $218 $207.9 $176 $160.5 $153.2 $161.9 $136.8 $121.6 $113.5 $121.4 TTM revenue excluding divested assets $1,348.5 $890.7 $651.6 $493.3

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Evolent Health's 2023 revenue outlook?

Evolent Health has a revenue outlook of $1.95 billion for 2023 at the midpoint.

What is the company's adjusted EBITDA for 2023?

The adjusted EBITDA outlook for Evolent Health in 2023 is approximately $190 million.

How much is the cross-sell revenue opportunity?

Evolent Health's cross-sell revenue opportunity is $50 billion out of a $150 billion specialty TAM.

What is Evolent's recurring revenue model?

Evolent operates on a subscription and services-based business model with risk-based recurring revenues.

What is the company's revenue growth rate?

Evolent Health reports a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39% from Q4 2019 to Q1 2023.

Last updated: May 23, 2023