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TAK-861

Phase 3

Narcolepsy Type 1 | Small molecule | Other |Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited|Last Updated: Mar 5, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedDouble-BlindPLACEBO_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials4
Total Enrollment885
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (4)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT06505031A Study of TAK-861 in People With Narcolepsy Type 1PHASE3 COMPLETED 105Oct 8, 2024Jun 4, 2025Sep 15, 202528 Australia, Austria +9
NCT06470828A Study of TAK-861 for the Treatment of Narcolepsy Type 1PHASE3 COMPLETED 168Jul 2, 2024Jun 3, 2025Jul 1, 202553 United States, Canada +9
NCT05816382A Study of TAK-861 for the Treatment of Selected Central Hypersomnia ConditionsPHASE2 RECRUITING 500Apr 5, 2023Feb 28, 2028Mar 5, 202652 United States, Australia +10
NCT05687903A Study of TAK-861 in Participants With Narcolepsy Type 1PHASE2 COMPLETED 112Jan 9, 2023Dec 14, 2023Jan 9, 202557 United States, Australia +10
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Change From Baseline to Week 12 in Mean Sleep Latency From the 4 Maintenance of Wakefulness Test (MWT) Wake Trials
Baseline, Week 12

The MWT evaluates a person's ability to remain awake under soporific conditions for a defined period of time. Because there is no biological measure of wakefulness, wakefulness is measured indirectly by the inability or delayed tendency to fall asleep. This tendency to fall asleep is measured via electroencephalography-derived sleep latency in the MWT. The MWT consists of four 40-minute sessions (trials) done 2 hours apart. Sleep latency in each session will be recorded. Participants will be required to stay awake in between the 4 sessions.

Number of Participants With at Least One or More Treatment-emergent Adverse Events (TEAEs)
From signing the informed consent form up to follow-up of 4 weeks after the last dose (Up to approximately 5 years)

An adverse event (AE) is defined as any untoward medical occurrence in a clinical investigation participant administered a drug; it does not necessarily have to have a causal relationship with this treatment. An AE can therefore be any unfavorable and unintended sign (e.g., a clinically significant abnormal laboratory finding), symptom, or disease temporally associated with the use of a drug, whether or not it is considered related to the drug. A TEAE is defined as an adverse event with an onset that occurs after receiving trial intervention.

Change From Baseline in the Average Sleep Latency as Determined From the MWT at Week 8
Baseline, Week 8

The MWT is a validated, objective measure that evaluates a participant's ability to remain awake under soporific conditions for a defined period. During each MWT session (1 session = 40 minutes), participants were instructed to sit quietly and remain awake for as long as possible. Sleep latency in each session was recorded on EEG. If no sleep was observed according to these rules, then the latency was defined as 40 minutes. The linear mixed effects model for repeated measures (MMRM) was used for analysis.

Secondary Endpoints
Change From Baseline to Week 12 in ESS Total Score
Baseline, Week 12
Weekly Cataplexy Rate (WCR) at Week 12
Week 12
Change From Baseline to Week 12 in Mean Number of Lapses on the 3 Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT)
Baseline, Week 12
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingDOUBLE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
TAK-861EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive TAK-861 tablets, orally, for 12 weeks.
PlaceboPLACEBO_COMPARATORParticipants will receive TAK-861-matching placebo tablets, orally, for 12 weeks.
TAK-861 Dose 1EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive TAK-861 tablets at dose 1, orally, for 12 weeks.
TAK-861 Dose 2EXPERIMENTALParticipants will receive TAK-861 tablets at dose 2, orally, for 12 weeks.
TAK-861 0.5 mg BIDEXPERIMENTALParticipants received TAK-861 0.5 milligrams (mg), orally, BID, from Days 1 to 56.
TAK-861 2 mg BIDEXPERIMENTALParticipants received TAK-861 2 mg, orally, BID, from Days 1 to 56.
TAK-861 2 mg and 5 mgEXPERIMENTALParticipants received TAK-861 2 mg followed by 5 mg dose, orally, BID, from Days 1 to 56.
TAK-861 7 mg QDEXPERIMENTALParticipants received TAK-861 7 mg, orally, once daily (QD), from Day 1 to 56. Placebo was given as the second dose.
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
TAK-861DRUGOral tablet.
PlaceboDRUGTAK-861-matching placebo tablet.
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range16 Years — 70 Years
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites28

Inclusion Criteria: 1. The participant has a body mass index (BMI) within the range 18 to 40 kilograms per meter square (kg/m\^2). 2. The participant has an International Classification of Sleep Disorders, Third Edition (ICSD-3) or International Classification of Sleep Disorders, Third Edition, Tex...

Countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumChinaFinlandFranceItalyPolandSouth KoreaSpainSwedenUnited StatesCanadaGermanyJapanNetherlandsNorwaySwitzerlandUnited Kingdom
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT05816382primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT05816382studyFirstPostDate: changed