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Palbociclib

Phase 3

Breast Cancer | Small molecule | Oncology |Pfizer, Inc.|Last Updated: Feb 10, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedCONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials5
Total Enrollment6,339
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (5)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT02513394PALbociclib CoLlaborative Adjuvant StudyPHASE3 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 5,796Aug 1, 2015Dec 1, 2028Feb 10, 2026437 United States, Australia +19
NCT03628066Biological and Clinical Effects of Palbociclib With Ovarian Suppression and Letrozole in the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Breast CancerPHASE2 COMPLETED 24Oct 22, 2018Jan 30, 2021Apr 20, 202215 United States, Canada
NCT02296801A Phase II Randomized Study Evaluating the Biological and Clinical Effects of the Combination of Palbociclib With Letrozole as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Post-Menopausal Women With Estrogen-Receptor Positive Primary Breast CancerPHASE2 COMPLETED 307Jan 1, 2015Mar 1, 2019Jan 13, 202252 United States, Canada +1
NCT05226871Study for Participants Continuing From Pfizer-sponsored Palbociclib (a Study Medicine) StudiesPHASE2 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 35Jul 7, 2022Dec 31, 2026Nov 25, 202523 United States, China +5
NCT00721409Study Of Letrozole With Or Without Palbociclib (PD-0332991) For The First-Line Treatment Of Hormone-Receptor Positive Advanced Breast CancerPHASE2 COMPLETED 177Sep 15, 2008Dec 20, 2017Nov 4, 2019104 United States, Canada +10
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Invasive Disease Free Survival (iDFS)
4 years

Invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) for the combination of at least 5 years endocrine therapy and 2-year palbociclib treatment versus at least 5 years endocrine therapy alone in patients with histologically confirmed HR+/HER2- invasive early breast cancer (EBC) at 4 years. iDFS is defined as the time from randomization to the date of the first event: local/regional invasive ipsilateral recurrence, contralateral invasive breast cancer, distant recurrence, second primary invasive cancer of non-breast origin or death from any cause. Direct comparison between arms used time to iDFS events and Kaplan-Meier Log-rank analysis. Due to the medians not yet achieved, the percentage of patients considered iDFS at 4 years is reported.

Complete Cell cycle arrest
From study entry to the time of the 6 week tumor biopsy to assess Ki67, approximately 6 weeks

Percentage of patients with a Ki67 less than 2.7%

Measurement of the Proliferation Marker Ki67 (% Positive Tumor Cells)
Baseline and at 14 weeks

The change in Ki67 from baseline to 14 weeks.

Clinical Response : Number of Patients Who Have Resolution of Measurable Lesions or no New Lesions or Other Signs of Disease Progression Compared to Baseline.
Baseline and at 14 weeks

Clinical Response is assessed by ultrasound at the end of the treatment (week 14) according to ECOG response criteria defined in Appendix A1 of the protocol. Number of participants with clinical complete response.

Number/Percentage of Participants with Treatment-Emergent Adverse Events (AEs) Leading to Permanent Discontinuation of Study Treatment and Serious Adverse Events (SAEs)
Baseline up to 28 days after last dose of study intervention

An AE was any untoward medical occurrence in a participant who received study drug without regard to possibility of causal relationship. An SAE was an AE resulting in any of the following outcomes or deemed significant for any other reason: death; initial or prolonged inpatient hospitalization; life-threatening experience (immediate risk of dying); persistent or significant disability/incapacity; congenital anomaly. Treatment-emergent are events between first dose of study drug and up to 28 days after last dose that were absent before treatment or that worsened relative to pretreatment state.

Number of Participants With Treatment-Emergent Adverse Events (TEAEs; All Causalities) at Phase 1
Maximum treatment duration (approximately 55 months)

An adverse event (AE) was any untoward medical occurrence in a participant who received study drug without regard to possibility of causal relationship. Serious adverse event (SAE) was an AE resulting in any of the following outcomes or deemed significant for any other reason: death; initial or prolonged inpatient hospitalization; life-threatening experience (immediate risk of dying); persistent or significant disability/incapacity; congenital anomaly.

Number of Participants With Treatment-Related Adverse Events at Phase 1
Maximum treatment duration (approximately 55 months)

An AE was any untoward medical occurrence attributed to study drug in a participant who received study drug. An SAE was an AE resulting in any of the following outcomes or deemed significant for any other reason: death; initial or prolonged inpatient hospitalization; life-threatening experience (immediate risk of dying); persistent or significant disability/incapacity; congenital anomaly.

Number of Participants With Dose Limiting Toxicities at Phase 1
Cycle 2 (4 weeks)

Dose limiting toxicity was defined as any of the following TEAEs occurring during the second cycle of treatment and possibly attributable to the combination of letrozole plus Palbociclib: 1. Grade 4 hematologic toxicity (including platelets \<25,000/μL, ANC \<500/μL). 2. Grade 3 neutropenia associated with a documented infection or fever ≥38.5°C. 3. Grade ≥3 non-hematologic toxicities, except those that have not been maximally treated (eg, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, hypertension). 4. Delay by ≥1 week in receiving the next scheduled dose of either study treatment due to persisting treatment-related toxicities (platelet count \<50,000/μL; ANC \<1,000/μL; nonhematologic toxicities of Grade ≥3 severity). 5. Inability to deliver at least 80% of the planned Palbociclib or letrozole doses during Cycle 2 due to toxicity possibly attributable to the study treatment.

Progression-Free Survival (PFS) at Phase 2 - Investigator Assessment
From randomization date to date of first documentation of progression or death (assessed up to 41 months)

PFS was defined as the time from randomization (or the first dose of study treatment for non-randomized studies) to the first documentation of objective tumor progression or to death due to any cause, whichever occurred first. PFS calculated as (Weeks or Months) = (first event date minus randomization or the first dose date plus 1) divided by 7 (or 30.44 if in months). PFS is usually characterized by the median, 25% percentile,75% percentile and their 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs).

Secondary Endpoints
Invasive Disease Free Survival (iDFS) Excluding Second Primary Invasive Cancers of Non-breast Origin.
4 years
Distant Recurrence-free Survival (DRFS)
4 years
Overall Survival (OS)
4 years
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingNONE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
Arm AEXPERIMENTALPalbociclib at a dose of 125 mg orally once daily, Day 1 to Day 21 followed by 7 days off treatment in a 28-day cycle for a total duration of 2 years, in addition to standard adjuvant endocrine therapy for a duration of at least 5 years.
Arm BOTHERStandard adjuvant endocrine therapy for a duration of at least 5 years.
Arm 1EXPERIMENTALOncotype DX Breast recurrence score on diagnostic tissue Daily Letrozole for 24 weeks + Palbociclib daily for 24 weeks + Goserelin weekly for 24 weeks
A: letrozoleACTIVE_COMPARATORletrozole 2.5 mg tablet orally daily for 14 weeks
B: letrozole then letrozole + palbociclibEXPERIMENTALletrozole 2.5 mg orally daily plus beginning 2 weeks after starting letrozole, palbociclib 125 mg capsule orally daily for 1 week then 1 week off, then a 3 weeks on and 1 week off cycle for a total of 14 weeks from start of letrozole therapy
C: palbociclib then letrozole + palbociclibEXPERIMENTALpalbociclib 125 mg capsule orally daily (for a 3 weeks on and 1 week off cycle for a total of 14 weeks from start of palbociclib) plus beginning 2 weeks after starting palbociclib, letrozole 2.5 mg tablet orally daily for a total of 12 weeks from start of letrozole therapy
D: letrozole + palbociclibEXPERIMENTALletrozole 2.5 mg tablet orally daily for a total of 14 weeks plus palbociclib 125 mg capsule orally daily for a 3 weeks on and 1 week off cycle, for a total of 14 weeks from start of therapy
Combined Groups B+D+COTHERCombined data
Arm 2EXPERIMENTALPalbociclib plus Cetuximab
Arm 3OTHERPalbociclib plus Fulvestrant
Arm 4OTHERPalbociclib plus Letrozole
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
PalbociclibDRUG -
Standard Adjuvant Endocrine TherapyDRUG -
LetrozoleDRUGLetrozole 2.5 mg by mouth daily for 24 weeks
GoserelinDRUGGoserelin 3.6mg subcutaneous injection x 1 on Day 1 of each 28-day cycle for 24 weeks
Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence ScoreDIAGNOSTIC_TESTPrior to assignment to Arm 1 the Oncotype DX diagnostic test will be conducted on diagnostic tissue to assign a recurrence score for stratification to cohort 1 or 2.
CetuximabDRUGIntravenous (IV) infusion
FulvestrantDRUGIntramuscular (IM)
PD 0332991DRUG125 mg/d capsules orally for 3 out of 4 weeks in repeated cycles
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — N/A
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites437

Inclusion Criteria: * Signed informed consent prior to study specific procedures. * Age ≥18 years (or per national guidelines). * Pre- and postmenopausal women or men with Stage II (Stage IIA limited to max. 1000 patients) or Stage III early invasive breast cancer * Patients with multicentric and/o...

Countries:United StatesAustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaGermanyHungaryIrelandIsraelItalyJapanMexicoNetherlandsPolandPortugalSouth KoreaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTaiwanUnited KingdomChinaThailandUkraineFranceRussiaSouth Africa
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Competitive Landscape -Breast Cancer 408 trials
CompanyTickerTrialsLead PhaseDrugs
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK12PHASE3Pembrolizumab, Paclitaxel, Doxorubicin, Epirubicin, Cyclophosphamide
AstraZeneca PLCAZN47PHASE3Fulvestrant, Capivasertib, Trastuzumab Deruxtecan, Paclitaxel, Trastuzumab
Gilead Sciences, Inc.GILD13PHASE3Sacituzumab Govitecan-hziy, Eribulin, Capecitabine Product, Gemcitabine, Vinorelbine
Eli Lilly and CompanyLLY27PHASE3Abemaciclib, Standard Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy, Imlunestrant, Tamoxifen, Anastrozole
BioNTech SE Sponsored ADRBNTX7PHASE3DB-1303/BNT323, T-DM1, Capecitabine, Paclitaxel, Nab-paclitaxel
Novartis AG Sponsored ADRNVS30PHASE3Ribociclib, Alpelisib, Fulvestrant, Trastuzumab, Pertuzumab
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.OLMA5PHASE3Palazestrant, Fulvestrant, Anastrozole, Letrozole, Exemestane
Pfizer Inc.PFE34PHASE3ARV-471, Fulvestrant, PF-07220060, letrozole, abemaciclib
BeOne Medicines Ltd. Sponsored ADRONC6PHASE3BGB-43395, Letrozole, Abemaciclib, Palbociclib, Ribociclib
Jazz Pharmaceuticals Public Limited CompanyJAZZ3PHASE3Zanidatamab, Trastuzumab, Eribulin, Vinorelbine, Gemcitabine
Celcuity Inc.CELC3PHASE3Gedatolisib, Palbociclib, Fulvestrant, Alpelisib, Arm A: Gedatolisib + Palbociclib + Fulvestrant
Relay Therapeutics, Inc.RLAY2PHASE3RLY-2608, Capivasertib, Fulvestrant, Palbociclib, Ribociclib
GSK plc Sponsored ADRGSK2PHASE3Niraparib
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc.GLSI1PHASE3GLSI-100
Bristol-Myers Squibb CompanyBMY5PHASE2Iza-bren, Nab-paclitaxel, Paclitaxel, Capecitabine, Carboplatin
BriaCell Therapeutics CorpBCTX2PHASE3SV-BR-1-GM, Cyclophosphamide, Interferon infiltration of the inoculation site, Retifanlimab, Treatment of Physician's Choice
Incyte CorporationINCY4PHASE2Ruxolitinib, Capecitabine, Regorafenib, Pembrolizumab, Axatilimab
Natera, Inc.NTRA3PHASE2Discontinuation of the anti-HER2 maintenance therapy
Puma Biotechnology, Inc.PBYI3PHASE2Neratinib, Loperamide, Colesevelam, Alisertib, Endocrine therapy
Immutep Ltd Sponsored ADRIMMP1PHASE2eftilagimod alpha, Paclitaxel
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT02513394primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT05226871primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT02513394studyFirstPostDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT05226871studyFirstPostDate: changed