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Seasonal flu vaccine

Phase 2

Seasonal Influenza | Monoclonal antibody | Infectious Disease |Novartis AG|Last Updated: Jan 27, 2016

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
UNCONTROLLEDBiomarker
Total Trials2
Total Enrollment97
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (2)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT01152814Study to Evaluate Safety and Immunogenicity of Sub-unit Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccine Administered to Elderly Subjects, Formulation 2010-2011PHASE2 COMPLETED 64Jun 1, 2010Jul 1, 2010Jan 27, 20166 Italy
NCT01123954Evaluating the Safeness of Trivalent Subunit Inactivated Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Flu on Vietnamese VolunteersPHASE2 COMPLETED 33Jan 1, 2010Apr 1, 2010Dec 14, 20111 Vietnam
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Percentage of Participants Who Achieved Seroconversion or Significant Increase in Single Radial Hemolysis (SRH) Area Against Each of Three Vaccine Strains After One Vaccination of FLUAD
day 22

Immunogenicity was measured as the percentage of participants who achieved seroconversion or significant increase in single radial hemolysis (SRH) area, against each of the three vaccine strains, three weeks after vaccination (day 22), evaluated using SRH assay. Seroconversion: proportion of participants with negative pre-vaccination serum and a post-vaccination serum area ≥ 25 mm2. Significant increase: proportion of participants with at least a 50% increase in area from positive pre-vaccination serum. Seroconversion or significant increase: proportion of participants with either seroconversion or significant increase. The European (Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use \[CHMP\]) criterion is met, if percentage of participants achieving seroconversion or significant increase in SRH area is 30% (≥65 years).

Geometric Mean Ratio of Participants Against Each of the Three Vaccine Strains After One Vaccination of FLUAD
day 22

Geometric mean ratio (GMR) of participants was calculated as the ratio of post-vaccination to pre-vaccination SRH geometric mean areas (GMAs), directed against each of the three vaccine strains, three weeks after FLUAD vaccination (day 22). The CHMP criterion was met if the geometric mean increase (GMR, day 22/day 1) in SRH antibody area is \>2.0 (≥65 years).

Percentage of Participants Who Achieved SRH Area ≥25mm2 Against Each of the Three Vaccine Strains After One Vaccination of FLUAD
day 22

Immunogenicity was measured as the percentage of participants achieving SRH area ≥25 mm2 against each of the three vaccine strains at baseline (day 1) and three weeks after FLUAD vaccination (day 22). This criterion is met according to CHMP guideline if percentage of participants achieving SRH area ≥25 mm2 is 60% (≥65 years).

Using the single vaccination for volunteers and follow up within 30 days since the first vaccination to evaluate levels of safety (AEs) after vaccination
30 days, including the follow-up period
Secondary Endpoints
Number of Participants Who Reported Solicited Local and Systemic Reactions
1 to 4 days post-vaccination
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationNA
MaskingNONE
ModelSINGLE_GROUP
PurposePREVENTION
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
Arm 1EXPERIMENTALNo comparator is administered, only one IM single dose of trivalent subunit inactivated influenza vaccine is administered during the vaccination visit
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
Seasonal flu vaccineBIOLOGICALThis phase II is performed as a multicenters study site in elderly subjects. Enrolled subjects received one single IM dose of trivalent subunit inactivated adjuvanted flu vaccine during the vaccination visit, according to the study protocol (follow-up period: till day 22)
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range65 Years — N/A
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersYes
Study Sites6

Key Inclusion Criteria: * Males and females volunteers of 65 years of age or older * Mentally competent * Willing and able to give written informed consent prior to study entry. * Able to comply with all the study requirements. * In general good health Key Exclusion Criteria: * Any serious chroni...

Countries:ItalyVietnam
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