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Asciminib

Phase 3

Philadelphia Chromosome-Positive Chronic Myeloid Leukemia | Small molecule | Oncology |Novartis AG|Last Updated: May 27, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedACTIVE_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials1
Total Enrollment568
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (1)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT05456191A Study to Investigate Tolerability and Efficacy of Asciminib (Oral) Versus Nilotinib (Oral) in Adult Participants (≥18 Years of Age) With Newly Diagnosed Philadelphia Chromosome Positive Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia in Chronic Phase (Ph+ CML-CP)PHASE3 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 568Nov 21, 2022Jul 7, 2031May 27, 2026120 United States, Argentina +22
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Time to Discontinuation of Study Treatment Due to Adverse Event (TTDAE) (From Interim Analysis)
From date of first dose to date of treatment discontinuation due to AE, assessed after 50 events had occurred, about 2 years since first patient first visit (FPFV).

TTDAE is defined as the interval from the date of first study treatment administration to the date of discontinuation of study treatment due to an adverse event (AE). The comparison between the asciminib and nilotinib treatment arms is performed using a cause-specific hazard model, in which discontinuations due to AE are considered the event of interest and discontinuations for reasons other than AE are treated as competing risks. The number of participants who discontinued study treatment due to AE within the specified timeframe is presented in the results table. The formal comparison between treatment arms is performed using a cause-specific hazard model, and the corresponding hazard ratio, confidence interval, and p-value are provided in the Statistical Analysis section. The TTDAE endpoint is event-driven by counting how many participants have experienced treatment discontinuations due to AE.

Time to Discontinuation of Study Treatment Due to Adverse Event (TTDAE) (From Primary Analysis)
From date of first dose to date of treatment discontinuation due to AE, assessed after 67 events had occurred, about 2.5 years since first patient first visit (FPFV),

TTDAE is defined as the interval from the date of first study treatment administration to the date of discontinuation of study treatment due to an adverse event (AE). The comparison between the asciminib and nilotinib treatment arms is performed using a cause-specific hazard model, in which discontinuations due to AE are considered the event of interest and discontinuations for reasons other than AE are treated as competing risks. The number of participants who discontinued study treatment due to AE within the specified timeframe is presented in the results table. The formal comparison between treatment arms is performed using a cause-specific hazard model, and the corresponding hazard ratio, confidence interval, and p-value are provided in the Statistical Analysis section. The TTDAE endpoint is event-driven by counting how many participants have experienced treatment discontinuations due to AE.

Secondary Endpoints
Percentage of Participants With Major Molecular Response (MMR) at Scheduled Data Collection Time Points
approximately 7.5 years
Percentage of Participants With Major Molecular Response (MMR) by Scheduled Data Collection Time Points
approximately 7.5 years
Percentage of Participants With MR4.0 at Scheduled Data Collection Time Points
approximately 7.5 years
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingNONE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
AsciminibEXPERIMENTALParticipants received asciminib 80 mg once a day (QD).
NilotinibACTIVE_COMPARATORParticipants will receive nilotinib 300 mg BID
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
AsciminibDRUGAsciminib 80 mg QD administered under fasting conditions.
NilotinibDRUGNilotinib 300 mg twice a day (BID) was administered under fasting conditions.
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — 100 Years
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites120

Key Inclusion Criteria: * Signed informed consent must be obtained prior to participation in the study. * Male or female patients ≥ 18 years of age. * Patients with CML-CP within 3 months of diagnosis. * Diagnosis of CML-CP (European Leukemia Network \[ELN\] 2020 criteria) with cytogenetic confirma...

Countries:United StatesArgentinaBulgariaCanadaCzechiaFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIndiaItalyJordanMalaysiaNetherlandsOmanRomaniaSingaporeSlovakiaSouth AfricaSouth KoreaSwitzerlandTurkey (Türkiye)United Arab EmiratesUnited Kingdom
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 28, 2026NCT05456191lastUpdatePostDate: changed
LOWMay 28, 2026NCT05456191lastUpdatePostDate: changed
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT05456191primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT05456191studyFirstPostDate: changed