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ERW316

Phase 1

Advanced HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer | Small molecule | Oncology |Novartis AG|Last Updated: May 6, 2026

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedCONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials1
Total Enrollment217
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (1)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT07570966Study of ERW316 as a Single Agent or in Combination With Endocrine Therapy in Patients With HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer and Other Advanced Solid TumorsPHASE1 NOT YET_RECRUITING 217Jun 30, 2026Aug 1, 2031May 6, 2026 -
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Phase I: Incidence and severity of dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs)
28 days

Number of participants with DLTs. A DLT is defined as an adverse event or abnormal laboratory value of Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) grade ≥ 3, unless clearly and inconvertibly assessed as due to disease progression, inter-current illness/injury, concomitant medications, or extraneous causes, that occurs within the first 28 days of treatment in the Phase I part. Other clinically significant toxicities may be considered to be DLTs, even if not CTCAE grade 3 or higher.

Phase I and Phase II: Incidence and severity of Adverse Events (AEs) and Serious Adverse Events (SAEs)
Up to approximately 2 years

Number of participants with AEs and SAEs, including changes in laboratory values, vital signs and echocardiograms (ECGs) qualifying and reported as AEs.

Phase I and Phase II: Frequency of dose interruptions, reductions and discontinuations
Up to approximately 2 years

Number of participants with dose adjustments (interruptions, reductions, or permanent discontinuation) as a measure of tolerability.

Phase I and Phase II: Dose intensity
Up to approximately 2 years

Dose intensity defined as the ratio of actual cumulative dose received and actual duration of exposure.

Secondary Endpoints
Phase I and Phase II: Best Overall Response (BOR)
Up to approximately 2 years
Phase I and Phase II: Overall Response Rate (ORR)
Up to approximately 2 years
Phase I and Phase II: Disease Control Rate (DCR)
Up to approximately 2 years
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingNONE
ModelSEQUENTIAL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
Phase I: ERW316 single agent (Arm A)EXPERIMENTALERW316
Phase I: ERW316 in combination with Fulvestrant (Arm B)EXPERIMENTALERW316 in combination with fulvestrant.
Phase I: ERW316 in combination with letrozole (Arm C)EXPERIMENTALERW316 in combination with letrozole.
Phase II, recommended dose (RD)-1: ERW316 in combination with Fulvestrant (Arm D)EXPERIMENTALERW316 in combination with fulvestrant.
Phase II, RD-2 (optional dose optimization): ERW316 in combination with Fulvestrant (Arm E)EXPERIMENTALERW316 in combination with fulvestrant.
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
ERW316DRUGOral administration
FulvestrantDRUGIntramuscular injection. Approved medication.
LetrozoleDRUGOral administration. Approved medication.
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — N/A
SexALL
Healthy VolunteersNo

Inclusion Criteria: * Age ≥ 18 years old * Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of ≤ 1. * Patients with one of the following histologically or cytologically confirmed advanced cancers: Phase I (patients with one of the following cancers, for whom no standard therapy is avai...

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Competitive Landscape -Breast Cancer 408 trials
CompanyTickerTrialsLead PhaseDrugs
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK12PHASE3Pembrolizumab, Paclitaxel, Doxorubicin, Epirubicin, Cyclophosphamide
AstraZeneca PLCAZN47PHASE3Fulvestrant, Capivasertib, Trastuzumab Deruxtecan, Paclitaxel, Trastuzumab
Gilead Sciences, Inc.GILD13PHASE3Sacituzumab Govitecan-hziy, Eribulin, Capecitabine Product, Gemcitabine, Vinorelbine
Eli Lilly and CompanyLLY27PHASE3Abemaciclib, Standard Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy, Imlunestrant, Tamoxifen, Anastrozole
BioNTech SE Sponsored ADRBNTX7PHASE3DB-1303/BNT323, T-DM1, Capecitabine, Paclitaxel, Nab-paclitaxel
Novartis AG Sponsored ADRNVS30PHASE3Ribociclib, Alpelisib, Fulvestrant, Trastuzumab, Pertuzumab
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.OLMA5PHASE3Palazestrant, Fulvestrant, Anastrozole, Letrozole, Exemestane
Pfizer Inc.PFE34PHASE3ARV-471, Fulvestrant, PF-07220060, letrozole, abemaciclib
BeOne Medicines Ltd. Sponsored ADRONC6PHASE3BGB-43395, Letrozole, Abemaciclib, Palbociclib, Ribociclib
Jazz Pharmaceuticals Public Limited CompanyJAZZ3PHASE3Zanidatamab, Trastuzumab, Eribulin, Vinorelbine, Gemcitabine
Celcuity Inc.CELC3PHASE3Gedatolisib, Palbociclib, Fulvestrant, Alpelisib, Arm A: Gedatolisib + Palbociclib + Fulvestrant
Relay Therapeutics, Inc.RLAY2PHASE3RLY-2608, Capivasertib, Fulvestrant, Palbociclib, Ribociclib
GSK plc Sponsored ADRGSK2PHASE3Niraparib
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc.GLSI1PHASE3GLSI-100
Bristol-Myers Squibb CompanyBMY5PHASE2Iza-bren, Nab-paclitaxel, Paclitaxel, Capecitabine, Carboplatin
BriaCell Therapeutics CorpBCTX2PHASE3SV-BR-1-GM, Cyclophosphamide, Interferon infiltration of the inoculation site, Retifanlimab, Treatment of Physician's Choice
Incyte CorporationINCY4PHASE2Ruxolitinib, Capecitabine, Regorafenib, Pembrolizumab, Axatilimab
Natera, Inc.NTRA3PHASE2Discontinuation of the anti-HER2 maintenance therapy
Puma Biotechnology, Inc.PBYI3PHASE2Neratinib, Loperamide, Colesevelam, Alisertib, Endocrine therapy
Immutep Ltd Sponsored ADRIMMP1PHASE2eftilagimod alpha, Paclitaxel
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT07570966studyFirstPostDate: changed
LOWMay 21, 2026NCT07570966NEW_TRIAL: changed
LOWMay 21, 2026NCT07570966NEW_TRIAL: changed