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Comparator: Estrace

Phase 1

Postmenopausal Symptoms | Small molecule | Other |Merck & Company, Inc.|Last Updated: Jan 22, 2016

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedDouble-BlindPLACEBO_CONTROLLEDBiomarker
Total Trials1
Total Enrollment29
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (1)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT00820664A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Effects of Estrogen in Healthy Postmenopausal WomenPHASE1 COMPLETED 29Dec 1, 2008May 1, 2009Jan 22, 2016 -
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
Immunohistochemistry (IHC) Proliferative Effects Measurement
4 weeks

Ratio of the total number of positively stained cell nuclei to the total number of cell nuclei. Proliferating endometrial cells express the Ki-67 antigen. The ratio was converted to a percent proliferating cells by taking the number of Ki-67 positive stained nuclei in a given field and dividing by the total number of nuclei in that field and multiplying by 100. At least 5 high power fields were scored in this manner and an aggregate percent Ki-67 positive cells was reported. Square root transformation was taken to make it approximately normally distributed for an ANOVA model to apply.

Secondary Endpoints
Mean Gene Expression Intensity After 4 Weeks of Either 0.5 or 2 mg Estrace Compared to Placebo.
4 weeks
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingDOUBLE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeDIAGNOSTIC
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
17β-estradiol 2.0 milligramsACTIVE_COMPARATOREstrace 2.0 mg tablet
17β-estradiol 0.5 milligramsACTIVE_COMPARATOREstrace 0.5 mg tablet
3PLACEBO_COMPARATORPlacebo
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
Comparator: Estrace 0.5 mgDRUG0.5 mg tablet taken once daily for 28 days
Comparator: Estrace 2 mgDRUG2 mg tablets taken once daily for 28 days.
Comparator: PlaceboDRUGPlacebo 0 mg capsule taken once daily for 28 days
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — 65 Years
SexFEMALE
Healthy VolunteersYes

Inclusion Criteria: * Patient is a healthy postmenopausal woman less than or equal to 65 years of age with onset of menopause less than or equal to 10 years prior to prestudy visit 1 * Patient has a uterus and no history of uterine bleeding in the past 3 months * Patient has not had a previous endo...

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