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Abemaciclib ; 1-0-1 per os

Phase 3

Breast Cancer Female | Small molecule | Oncology |Eli Lilly and Company|Last Updated: Nov 19, 2025

Success Probability
Approval Probability 71%
TA Base Rate26%
Adjusted LOA41%
ML RiskLOW_RISK
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Market & Valuation
rNPV $3.2B
Market Size $9.4B
Revenue Basis $1.6B
Competitors 6
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Trial Design
RandomizedNO_TREATMENT_CONTROLLEDDMCBiomarker
Total Trials1
Total Enrollment1,260
FDA Designations
No designations recorded
Clinical Trials (1)
NCT IDTitlePhaseStatusEnrollmentVelocityDesignStartCompletionLast UpdatedSitesCountries
NCT04565054Adjuvant Therapy With Abemaciclib + SOC ET vs. SOC ET in Clinical or Genomic High Risk, HR+/HER2- EBCPHASE3 ACTIVE NOT_RECRUITING 1,260Sep 2, 2020Jul 1, 2029Nov 19, 202585 Germany, Poland +1
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Study Endpoints
Primary Endpoints
invasive disease-free survival (iDFS)
at end of study, 3-6 years after start of study treatment

superiority in invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) of abemaciclib + endocrine therapy vs. standard-of-care endocrine therapy in patients with HR+/HER2- high risk breast cancer.

Secondary Endpoints
overall survival (OS)
at end of study, 3-6 years after start of treatment
differences in overall survival (OS) and dDFS
at end of study, 3-6 years after start of study treatment
subgroup and multivariable survival analyses
at end of study, 3-6 years after start of study treatment
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Study Design & Arms
AllocationRANDOMIZED
MaskingNONE
ModelPARALLEL
PurposeTREATMENT
Treatment Arms
ArmTypeDescription
Abemaciclib plus ETEXPERIMENTALAbemaciclib 150 mg, 2 x daily, resulting in 300 mg/day, oral, 24 months plus endocrine treatment of physician´s choice
Standard-of-care ETNO_INTERVENTIONStandard-of-care ET according to clinical guidelines. Pre-/perimenopausal patients: * Either aromatase inhibitor + GnRH agonist * or Tamoxifen +/- GnRH-agonist (as per investigator´s decision) or Postmenopausal patients: * Either Aromatase inhibitor * or Tamoxifen OR
Interventions
NameTypeDescription
Abemaciclib 50 MG; 150mg 1-0-1 per osDRUGExperimental: Abemaciclib plus ET Abemaciclib 150 mg, 2 x daily, resulting in 300 mg/day, oral, 24 months plus endocrine treatment of physician´s choice
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Eligibility Criteria
Age Range18 Years — N/A
SexFEMALE
Healthy VolunteersNo
Study Sites85

Inclusion Criteria: A. Prior to REGISTRATION 1\. Written informed consent prior to any study procedures (outcomes of standard-of-care procedures performed before signing of informed consent by the patient but within allowed screening period can be used for screening of patient). 2. Female. 3. ≥ 18...

Countries:GermanyPolandSpain
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Recent Changes (Last 90 Days)
LOWMay 26, 2026NCT04565054primaryCompletionDate: changed
LOWMay 24, 2026NCT04565054studyFirstPostDate: changed